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So 3 seasons under the belt for Collins and no post season to speak of...

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Katatonic

Well-Known Member
Oct 23, 2004
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and the odds are that the 'Cats won't make the NCAAs for this upcoming season, what would be his 4th at the helm of the Wildcats.

Maybe there should be rumblings about CC being on the hot seat, esp. as there were those who were convinced that CC would do a fairly quick turnaround (of which I was always a bit dubious).

Unless everything breaks the 'Cats way this season (no major injuries, Law being able to go to the basket with regularity and create his own shot, the young guys showing improvement and a couple of the incoming frosh being contributors, the ball bouncing NU's way and being the difference in a couple of games) - then maybe the 'Cats have a shot at the Tourney, but it would be expecting too much for all those things tp break the 'Cats way, so the NIT seems more likely.

Which leaves the 'Cats in not that different of a situation from towards the end of the BC era.

But you know what? Even if the 'Cats only make the NITs this upcoming season - I'm fine with it.

While I have high expectations of the incoming class, not going to expect too much on a bunch of frosh and there will be veteran players who show improvement and others who don't show enough improvement.

The 2017-18 season is the one where there should be the right mix of talent and experience for the 'Cats to make a serious run at the Tourney, but even that's no guarantee as the bottom of the league (PSU and Minny should be improved, not sure about Rutgers tho).

While it would be a major disappointment if the 'Cats don't make the Tourney that season due to a game here and there - where the 'Cats lose on a last second shot, that's the way it goes sometimes.

Never expected a quick fix and sometimes when all the pieces are in place, things don't work out for one reason or another - so to have some sort of time-table as to making the Tourney is being short-sighted.

CC and staff have done a good job in building the program (even if it hasn't quite yet shown in making the post-season), but they also have a tougher job as they are trying to win in the B1G w/o running a system to make-up for the shortfall in talent - so they need to recruit better than the middling teams which is tougher than ever now that programs like PSU under Chambers have seen an upswing in recruiting).

Have confidence that CC and staff will get the 'Cats to the Tourney (likely will be some ups and downs in the process) - and that they will get it done sooner than later.
 
Katatonic said:
and the odds are that the 'Cats won't make the NCAAs for this upcoming season, what would be his 4th at the helm of the Wildcats.

Maybe there should be rumblings about CC being on the hot seat, esp. as there were those who were convinced that CC would do a fairly quick turnaround (of which I was always a bit dubious).

Unless everything breaks the 'Cats way this season (no major injuries, Law being able to go to the basket with regularity and create his own shot, the young guys showing improvement and a couple of the incoming frosh being contributors, the ball bouncing NU's way and being the difference in a couple of games) - then maybe the 'Cats have a shot at the Tourney, but it would be expecting too much for all those things tp break the 'Cats way, so the NIT seems more likely.

Which leaves the 'Cats in not that different of a situation from towards the end of the BC era.

But you know what? Even if the 'Cats only make the NITs this upcoming season - I'm fine with it.

While I have high expectations of the incoming class, not going to expect too much on a bunch of frosh and there will be veteran players who show improvement and others who don't show enough improvement.

The 2017-18 season is the one where there should be the right mix of talent and experience for the 'Cats to make a serious run at the Tourney, but even that's no guarantee as the bottom of the league (PSU and Minny should be improved, not sure about Rutgers tho).

While it would be a major disappointment if the 'Cats don't make the Tourney that season due to a game here and there - where the 'Cats lose on a last second shot, that's the way it goes sometimes.

Never expected a quick fix and sometimes when all the pieces are in place, things don't work out for one reason or another - so to have some sort of time-table as to making the Tourney is being short-sighted.

CC and staff have done a good job in building the program (even if it hasn't quite yet shown in making the post-season), but they also have a tougher job as they are trying to win in the B1G w/o running a system to make-up for the shortfall in talent - so they need to recruit better than the middling teams which is tougher than ever now that programs like PSU under Chambers have seen an upswing in recruiting).

Have confidence that CC and staff will get the 'Cats to the Tourney (likely will be some ups and downs in the process) - and that they will get it done sooner than later.
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There is NO way Collins will be on the "hot seat" this season. Gotta give him at least 4 years to get his players on the team. And thru 3 seasons there is no question the product on the floor is improved.

I've been consistently saying 2018 is the year for the NCAA. The first Collins class will be seniors (academically at least) and all grown up. Cats will finish 8th and make the Dance. Count on it.
 
Fitzphile said:
There is NO way Collins will be on the "hot seat" this season. Gotta give him at least 4 years to get his players on the team. And thru 3 seasons there is no question the product on the floor is improved.
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Of course CC shouldn't be, but for those who were expecting a quick turnaround, he should be on their hot seat.
 
Katatonic said:
Of course CC shouldn't be, but for those who were expecting a quick turnaround, he should be on their hot seat.
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Not sure what you mean by "a quick turnaround". NU was a solid NIT team in the years prior to Collins, but had plateaued. Phillips was looking to get to a higher plateau. This will take time........I certainly didn't expect this to happen in the first 3 or 4 years.

FWIW, I believe the ultimate plateau for NU is consistently finishing 6th-8th in the Big 10. I don't see the Cats competing for championships on an annual basis.
 
^ There were a few posters predicting a Tourney bid within 2-3 years upon CC's hiring.
 
When you're selling the NU gig, there's not too many positive points remaining. For a coach who might be considered by other big conference schools, one of the VERY few (if any) positives is that the administration will be loyal and patient. A coach will not have to uproot his family and be dragged through the papers for three or four years.

Whether it's Collins or the next coach, if you dump him after four or five years, that selling point is gone.

All the same challenges remain - grade standards ... the facility ... the support. Until the support and the facilities change, I don't know why you wouldn't give anyone six or seven years, unless we're talking about 10-20/5-25 records
 
One more thing ... let me throw this out to the group ... how much do you REALLY care about NITs? They are nice and all, but it's only a step to the goal that really matters.

For the sake of summer conversation, if this was the first of five 19-20-win seasons with 8-10 conference wins each year, but no NITs (admittedly unlikely), would you dump Collins after seven years? With the NU bar always so incredibly low, I'd have a hard time making that leap.

OTOH, at some point, you run into the same issues that were dogging Carmody near the end. Without solid NCAA progress, recruiting becomes tougher. The support is even less. And at some point, you can see an even-deeper-downturn coming a mile away.
 
Sec. 112, your last two sentences are the entire game.

It's all about the talent and the only way to improve the overall level of talent is to consistently improve. Fortunately, there's some flexibility in how "improve" can be characterized.

I would argue, though, that Carmody's (Hardy's) recruiting was strongest his last five or so years which followed some really crappy Big Ten seasons.

For Collins to continue to over-perform in recruiting he has to have a believable narrative. Law, Falzon, Rap and Benson were all four star recruits and will be playing together the next three years. Recruits understand talent. The next four star to commit won't be breaking new ground and will be joining a team with a lot of assets.

This will be the first year that NU has the roster to play Collin's style. Will the defense be lock-down like in the first year? Will the offense hum? It's possible with Law coming back and the other veterans getting stronger.

The issue around making the NIT or the NCAA will increasingly be psychological. Not the "we haven't every been there" line of thinking as much as the "we have the talent and ability to step on their throat right now" line of thinking. The Ohio State games...the first PSU game, etc.

To win 9 or more in the conference.....Collins' system has to be effective...the majority of the roster has to have the mindset that they are superior...the team has to get some breaks (injuries and referees) and make a little run in the conference. To date, the system hasn't been a difference maker, the team has lacked confidence at critical times and NU has not received its fair share of breaks. And so no run in the conference and no post season.

But on the hot-seat issue, what alternative comes within a million miles of what NU has going for it right now? If Philips is a dick for his handling of Carmody, a short leash on Collins doesn't fix that or move the program forward. And if you bounce Collins where do you go? You'd be north of the wall and Winter isn't coming, it's here.
 
Medill90 said:
But on the hot-seat issue, what alternative comes within a million miles of what NU has going for it right now? If Philips is a dick for his handling of Carmody, a short leash on Collins doesn't fix that or move the program forward. And if you bounce Collins where do you go?
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This.

It isn't like NU hasn't had proven coaches....Tex Winter and Bill Foster come to mind. Give Collins time to grow and establish his program, a minimum of 8 years before making ANY "hot seat" proclamations. NU has the worst facilities of ANY basketball major conference and this has to affect his ability to attract top recruits. Hopefully within the next 5 years something will be done to make a step change improvement in the facilities, once football leaves Central Ave in 2017.
 
For the sake of summer conversation, if this was the first of five 19-20-win seasons with 8-10 conference wins each year, but no NITs (admittedly unlikely), would you dump Collins after seven years? With the NU bar always so incredibly low, I'd have a hard time making that leap.
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I can't see that happening either for a multitude of reasons (poor scheduling/incredibly weak bottom of the conference, inability to beat any upper level BIG teams, NIT bid thieves), but in this scenario I would dump* Collins.

Phillips rationale for bringing Collins was to raise the bar you're talking about (aka - Hdhntr's point "B to C" argument). In such a scenario Collins would have failed bring the program to the peak level of his predecessor, aka the post season. Wins become empty if they are always at the expensive of bottom feeders and never lead anywhere (I consider the NIT to be somewhere).

*If Collins were bringing in a nationally praised recruiting class capable of making a significant impact from day 1, I think you'd have to give him another season to see what have you have.
 
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ColumbusCatFan1 said:
I can't see that happening either for a multitude of reasons (poor scheduling/incredibly weak bottom of the conference, inability to beat any upper level BIG teams, NIT bid thieves), but in this scenario I would dump* Collins.

Phillips rationale for bringing Collins was to raise the bar you're talking about (aka - Hdhntr's point "B to C" argument). In such a scenario Collins would have failed bring the program to the peak level of his predecessor, aka the post season. Wins become empty if they are always at the expensive of bottom feeders and never lead anywhere (I consider the NIT to be somewhere).

*If Collins were bringing in a nationally praised recruiting class capable of making a significant impact from day 1, I think you'd have to give him another season to see what have you have.
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CC needs at least 13 seasons.
 
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Medill90 said:
... But on the hot-seat issue, what alternative comes within a million miles of what NU has going for it right now?... if you bounce Collins where do you go?
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This is always THE consideration, especially with the soft foundation that NU basketball is built on.

I've always thought NU was EXTREMELY lucky to get its last two coaches - especially considering the September circumstances Billy C arrived in.

And it's pretty obvious Phillips was married to Collins long before he was hired.

If Phillips wants to dump CC after year four or five years, you better have your ducks in a row before you even have the exit meeting. NU is not a job coaches with strong big-conference experience will climb over each other to get.
 
Sec.112 said:
I've always thought NU was EXTREMELY lucky to get its last two coaches - especially considering the September circumstances Billy C arrived in
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I agree.

If CC were to leave Evanston (regardless of reason) even in the next 4 or 5 years, NU would absolutely need an imminent facilities upgrade in it's back pocket when conducting the next coaching search. Loosening the purse strings would likely be necessary as well.
 
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Wow, Chris Collins just came off tying the record for most wins in a season as well as most Big Ten wins in a season (assuming the later is true, I couldn't records for every year) and someone is calling for him to be on the hotseat. What's next, calling for Fitz to be on the hotseat?


Also, I thought we were gonna make the tourney going into last season. I don't believe this is the year. We have an unknown at the 5 in Benson and Pardon's development. Replacing Demps at the 2 will be tough as well. We finally have the bodies, but a lot of young guys. I'm with Phile 2018 is the year.
 
shakes3858 said:
as well as most Big Ten wins in a season (assuming the later is true, I couldn't records for every year)
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Not even close. NU won 11 Big 10 games against just 1 loss in 1931 under Dutch Lonborg. Dutch also went 10-2, 9-3 (twice), and 8-4 (thrice), so let's not get too excited about an 8-10 finish! Bill Rohr went 8-6 3 times.....Rich Falk 8-10 in that excellent '82-83 season, and of course one other coach had 2 8-10 seasons..........
 
Fitzphile said:
Not even close. NU won 11 Big 10 games against just 1 loss in 1931 under Dutch Lonborg. Dutch also went 10-2, 9-3 (twice), and 8-4 (thrice), so let's not get too excited about an 8-10 finish! Bill Rohr went 8-6 3 times.....Rich Falk 8-10 in that excellent '82-83 season, and of course one other coach had 2 8-10 seasons..........
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That other coach had an 8-8 season too.
 
shakes3858 said:
Wow, Chris Collins just came off tying the record for most wins in a season as well as most Big Ten wins in a season (assuming the later is true, I couldn't records for every year) and someone is calling for him to be on the hotseat.
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Boggles the mind, no? And it IS tied for the most conference wins in modern college bball history...
 
Collins won't be on the hot seat as long as Mac is here. If we can't get into the NCAAs during the next two years, though, things could get difficult without some clear signs in recruiting and on the court that we are close to breaking through.
 
Sec.112 said:
This is always THE consideration, especially with the soft foundation that NU basketball is built on.

I've always thought NU was EXTREMELY lucky to get its last two coaches - especially considering the September circumstances Billy C arrived in.

And it's pretty obvious Phillips was married to Collins long before he was hired.

If Phillips wants to dump CC after year four or five years, you better have your ducks in a row before you even have the exit meeting. NU is not a job coaches with strong big-conference experience will climb over each other to get.
Click to expand...
I would guess that he would not have let BC go had he not had a good feeling of what he would be able to land as a replacement. Basically that CCC was always the target and that enough inroads has been made that Phillips was pretty sure he had his man.
 
ColumbusCatFan1 said:
Phillips rationale for bringing Collins was to raise the bar you're talking about (aka - Hdhntr's point "B to C" argument). In such a scenario Collins would have failed bring the program to the peak level of his predecessor, aka the post season. Wins become empty if they are always at the expensive of bottom feeders and never lead anywhere (I consider the NIT to be somewhere).
Click to expand...

This is the difficult situation that I hope Collins renders moot. On the one hand, if you fired the previous coach because you justifiably thought 4 NIT bids in 5 years wasn't good enough, you can't then keep the current coach around through a long series of seasons that aren't even that good. But on the other hand, I'm not sure where NU could possibly turn if Collins isn't the guy. So let's hope Collins gets the program to the NCAAs in the next season or two and makes this conversation meaningless.
 
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Styre said:
This is the difficult situation that I hope Collins renders moot. On the one hand, if you fired the previous coach because you justifiably thought 4 NIT bids in 5 years wasn't good enough, you can't then keep the current coach around through a long series of seasons that aren't even that good. But on the other hand, I'm not sure where NU could possibly turn if Collins isn't the guy. So let's hope Collins gets the program to the NCAAs in the next season or two and makes this conversation meaningless.
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I think the issue with the previous coach wasn't so much the results as the process. His complete disdain for recruiting and general aloofness, plus his age, put him on the outs with Phillips. As long as Collins stays as focused and professional as he has been for the past 3 years, he stays. Big $'s donors must love him, and he could well become the athletics face of the university.
 
So NU loses its most athletic player for the season last year and then its starting center for a substantial portion of the season of the Big 10 season and wins 20 games after winning 15 games in the first season without Collins' players and a weak roster with limited depth in his second season. Bottom line is Collins at the age of 41 who is a tireless recruiter and a solid game coach is not going anywhere. As for the silly NIT argument. NU did not make the NIT because a new rule stole 13 bids from the NIT because non-power conference regular season winners were given automatic bids. Collins has recruited 4 four star players in three recruiting years. That has not happened before. And that is not including its star player McIntosh who plays like a 4 star player. Even their 3 star recruits in Pardon and Skelly have consistently flashed more athleticism and skills than backup players in prior regimes. Too bad some fans can't see that the Princeton offense and the 1-3-1 defenses are gimmicks that won't win enough in Power Conferences to get to the NCAA tourney which is the goal and not the NIT tourney.
 
Styre said:
This is the difficult situation that I hope Collins renders moot. On the one hand, if you fired the previous coach because you justifiably thought 4 NIT bids in 5 years wasn't good enough, you can't then keep the current coach around through a long series of seasons that aren't even that good. But on the other hand, I'm not sure where NU could possibly turn if Collins isn't the guy. So let's hope Collins gets the program to the NCAAs in the next season or two and makes this conversation meaningless.
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I believe in the Golden Rule. That is, he who has the gold makes all the rules. Phillips can use whatever criteria and justification he wants as long as he is in the position.
 
ColumbusCatFan1 said:
It's going to take ALOT of work (and almost certainly the departure of Fitz) for that to happen.
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I don't agree. NU makes the NCAA and Collins becomes a media darling. He is so polished with the media that he will get mucho airtime. And if he can sustain top half of the Big 10 standings the pendulum will swing his way. And don't underestimate the fact that he was Dr. Jim's choice.....
 
Fitzphile said:
I don't agree. NU makes the NCAA and Collins becomes a media darling. He is so polished with the media that he will get mucho airtime. And if he can sustain top half of the Big 10 standings the pendulum will swing his way. And don't underestimate the fact that he was Dr. Jim's choice.....
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Collins is much more interesting than Fitz, a much better interview.
 
Fitzphile said:
I don't agree. NU makes the NCAA and Collins becomes a media darling...And if he can sustain top half of the Big 10 standings the pendulum will swing his way.
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As I said, that will require ALOT of work.

I think you're forgetting that Fitz is one (if not the most) decorated athletes in NU football history/one of the leaders behind arguably the greatest turnaround stories in the history of college football. He's also the winningest coach in school history. Don't kid yourself, Phillips loves the guy. He's invested too much into the football program for Fitz to play 2nd fiddle.

I know you're not a fan and it's true that some of his tactics behind podium leave something to be desired at times, but the dude is Northwestern athletics. Assuming good health, Fitz will still be here after Phillips and Collins are gone.
 
Katatonic said:
and the odds are that the 'Cats won't make the NCAAs for this upcoming season, what would be his 4th at the helm of the Wildcats.

Maybe there should be rumblings about CC being on the hot seat, esp. as there were those who were convinced that CC would do a fairly quick turnaround (of which I was always a bit dubious).

Unless everything breaks the 'Cats way this season (no major injuries, Law being able to go to the basket with regularity and create his own shot, the young guys showing improvement and a couple of the incoming frosh being contributors, the ball bouncing NU's way and being the difference in a couple of games) - then maybe the 'Cats have a shot at the Tourney, but it would be expecting too much for all those things tp break the 'Cats way, so the NIT seems more likely.

Which leaves the 'Cats in not that different of a situation from towards the end of the BC era.

But you know what? Even if the 'Cats only make the NITs this upcoming season - I'm fine with it.

While I have high expectations of the incoming class, not going to expect too much on a bunch of frosh and there will be veteran players who show improvement and others who don't show enough improvement.

The 2017-18 season is the one where there should be the right mix of talent and experience for the 'Cats to make a serious run at the Tourney, but even that's no guarantee as the bottom of the league (PSU and Minny should be improved, not sure about Rutgers tho).

While it would be a major disappointment if the 'Cats don't make the Tourney that season due to a game here and there - where the 'Cats lose on a last second shot, that's the way it goes sometimes.

Never expected a quick fix and sometimes when all the pieces are in place, things don't work out for one reason or another - so to have some sort of time-table as to making the Tourney is being short-sighted.

CC and staff have done a good job in building the program (even if it hasn't quite yet shown in making the post-season), but they also have a tougher job as they are trying to win in the B1G w/o running a system to make-up for the shortfall in talent - so they need to recruit better than the middling teams which is tougher than ever now that programs like PSU under Chambers have seen an upswing in recruiting).

Have confidence that CC and staff will get the 'Cats to the Tourney (likely will be some ups and downs in the process) - and that they will get it done sooner than later.
Click to expand...

I think we could make it this year, and I suppose we shall see what happens. Thanks for writing the team off before the season has even begun though. That really impresses.

Hilarious that a Carmody lover would put Collins on the hot seat for not making it to the NCAA's in his 4th year, but was willing to give BC 13.

It also says how bare the cupboard really was. At least KON left Carmody enough to get to the NIT before his recruits arrived. At least Foster gave both Byrdsong and KON enough (Esch) to get to the NIT. I think this year we should contend for the Tourney. But, the bar should be the following season. If with a whole roster of his own recruits, Collins cannot get us to the tourney, then yes, he should be put on the hot seat. No way we should give him anything close to 13 years, that's for damn sure.
 
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