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So what does NU need next year?

Sec.112

Well-Known Member
Jun 17, 2001
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I don't feel like we've had the full, detailed, end-of-the-season breakdown, so let me start with these two general questions.

1) What is a realistic expectation for next year?
2) What does the team need to reach that expectation or simply improve next year? Can all of us agree with the assumption that if they improve by two games this is an NIT team? I'm not saying that's automatic, but I think it's doable and a good starting point.

For now, I won't sway the conversation with my view. I'll throw that out later.

Let me just start with a very simple answer. They need options and consistency. More from me later.
 
I don't feel like we've had the full, detailed, end-of-the-season breakdown, so let me start with these two general questions.

1) What is a realistic expectation for next year?
2) What does the team need to reach that expectation or simply improve next year? Can all of us agree with the assumption that if they improve by two games this is an NIT team? I'm not saying that's automatic, but I think it's doable and a good starting point.

For now, I won't sway the conversation with my view. I'll throw that out later.

Let me just start with a very simple answer. They need options and consistency. More from me later.

1) I think a realistic expectation is to take a half-step backwards. NU will likely have zero Senior starters. The second best player will be returning from a season-ending injury. The non-conference schedule will somewhat more challenging. So I think NU will again miss post-season play, finishing like 19-14 with a win in the Big 10 tournament.

2) To exceed my expectation, five things:

- Vic comes back healthy and an improved player, able to create his own shots.
- Dererk shows Happ-like improvement in his game and anchors the Center position.
- Falzon shows Duncan Robinson-like improvement and is a force at the 3.
- Lindsey plays consistently hard and can create off the dribble without losing his outside touch.
- Cats avoid the dreaded annual injury bug and stay healthy.
 
More toughness in the last five minutes of games.

1). NIT bubble (but out).

2). Have to switch to a full time zone. We don't have the athletes to guard 5 Big 10 players.

And I have no idea where our scoring is going to come from with Pardon and Lindsey and freshmen replacing Trey and Alex.
 
I don't think there will be much improvement in the team's overall performance, but they should have a significantly stronger schedule, which should help their RPI enough to get them into the NIT. A high NIT seed would be a pleasant surprise; an NCAA Tournament bid would be shocking (but welcome).

My concern for next season revolves mainly around the fact that we are banking on a lot of potential to come through in order to be successful. If you look at the roster right now, the only player we know is going to contribute high-quality minutes as a Big Ten starter is McIntosh. After that:

Lumpkin: all D, no O
Taphorn: O off the bench, no D
Law: returning from serious shoulder injury
Skelly: athletic player inside, O and D potential, limited minutes
Lindsey: solid outside shot, O and D potential, limited minutes
Falzon: good shot, willing rebounder, inconsistent in starter's minutes
Pardon: has the tools but needs a lot of work; cannot use his right hand on O
Ash: no idea, barely played
and then the freshmen and any walk-ons or grad transfers.

So yeah, if all of those players come through on their potential and take a big leap forward, we could be in tournament contention. But history tells us that's pretty unlikely. I think if we're going to take that step, it'll be in 2017-18.
 
1). NIT bubble (but out).

2). Have to switch to a full time zone. We don't have the athletes to guard 5 Big 10 players.

And I have no idea where our scoring is going to come from with Pardon and Lindsey and freshmen replacing Trey and Alex.
Do names like Law and Falzon mean anything to you. Pardon will score more then Olah and who knows what Brown and Rap might bring
 
While this year's team was a step from last year it was still in a nexus between what the roster was capable of doing versus how Collins wants his teams to play. Two different things.

While I am concerned about the loss of Demps and Olah I think there will be more clarity in terms of style and expectation. NU will play more man to man next year and will fast break more. (I know, cliches) I see next year as a slight improvement over this year with the NIT possible to likely.

NU is and will continue to be a team that develops players over four years. The roster will be loaded with talented kids who went home early this year and tasted defeat. I do think the more competitive non con will help with the Big Ten season.

I think next year's team finally avoids a long string of conference losses. That's if everyone stays healthy. It would be huge if they could get through the Big Ten season without losing more than two in a row. Or, without getting absolutely blown out. These are indicators for me on par with wins and losses.
 
I'll take that bet on Pardon scoring more than Olah. That means Pardon would have to improve from 6.7 to 11.4 points a game, which is not impossible, but he's going to have stay on the floor longer and out of foul trouble, shoot better than 53 percent from the free throw line, and expand his range from more than two feet from the basket. As to Falzon, he's going to have get to the free throw line more than 1.5 times a game, and that means expanding his game so that he's taking less than 78 percent of his shots from three, as he did this season. Don't know what to expect from Law coming off shoulder surgery, but would expect at least some early rust.

The Cats will have to replace 42 percent of their offense with the departures of Demps, Olah and van Zegeren. Again, not impossible, but certainly a challenge.
 
Oh, I just wanted to add.

If someone wants to crap on my positive outlook you can go blow a porpoise. Where's the friggin' joy if you can't be bullish on your team and its players. I mean really. Maybe you'd have more friends if you'd learn to keep your mouth shut.
 
I don't feel like we've had the full, detailed, end-of-the-season breakdown, so let me start with these two general questions.

1) What is a realistic expectation for next year?
2) What does the team need to reach that expectation or simply improve next year? Can all of us agree with the assumption that if they improve by two games this is an NIT team? I'm not saying that's automatic, but I think it's doable and a good starting point.

For now, I won't sway the conversation with my view. I'll throw that out later.

Let me just start with a very simple answer. They need options and consistency. More from me later.

Given that the schedule will be tougher next year, we could have a better team and win fewer games. And we could also win fewer games and be in tournament consideration, depending on just how good the schedule ends up being and how much the RPI likes us. I mean, Oregon State got a 7 seed with 19 wins.

I'm with Styre, though, in the sense that we have a lot of hope for what our guys can be next year, but the only guy we really know is going to be good is McIntosh. Otherwise we're speculating on what we've got, even with Law. I'm bullish, but still a bit skeptical.
 
I agree with everybody's uncertainty. Here are a few of the things I'll be looking for.

1 a) Where do you make up for Demps on offense in the first 22 games of the year? Yes, we've seen all the stats for his last nine games. That means he had 22 games of pretty mediocre offensive production and 20%+ from three.

I don't think it's all that difficult to get that kind of production from some combination of a tad-improved Falzon and a healthy Law.

1 b) Where do you make for Demps on offense in the last 9 games of the year? That's a different question. Does RI have it in him? Will Falzon improve that much? I'm not one who is putting big money down on Law either.

One way or the other, if NU is truly going to improve, to begin, they DESPERATELY need to find that consistent (key word) second/lead scorer - Demps in the last nine games. When BMac gets double-teamed as he was throughout the B10, he needs to have a place to pass. They won't go anywhere if BMac is the only consistent offense every night.

I'd go as far to say they really need a consistent second guy and a streaky Falzon/Demps-like third guy who forces the defense to pay attention to him. You can't go into these close games with only two scorers on the floor. As we've seen, that' too easy to guard.

2) Where do you make up for Olah? This one I have a little more faith. Once again, we're looking at a guy who was a non-factor for much of the season.

If Pardon can stay on the court, that's a GREAT start toward improvement. I'm with you if you're saying that's not automatic.

However, then you bring in Benson. You don't need the freshman to dominate. For now, you just need him for support. That's a good position for an all-state player.

Between the two of them, I feel pretty good a center.

3) Pipe dream: value each possession more. I know this goes against a fundamental belief of Collins, but I really wish somehow it would get into his head this summer that he needs to instill his team to be more concerned with each and every possession on offense and defense. The margin of error is too small for these teams to be pissing away four or five possessions each games.

Tell me if I'm wrong. Here's a number of possessions you can depend on in every game from NU:
  • A Lumpkin three-point miss to "establish" him
  • On the low end, two three-pointers in the first four or five seconds of the shot clock - usually from the horribly streaky Falzon or Demps
  • Again on the low end, two easy buckets by the opponent as a result of missed switches on defense
Somebody will say that's the price of business. But in all these cases, I think these are INCREDIBLY avoidable.

I would start with a strong consideration for tossing that defense for a combination of straight m2m and a zone. Maybe it will change with Demps' departure, but too often, NU gets lost in their switches.

4) Others I'll be looking for:
  • Law - I don't think an improved return is automatic.
  • Who are the final five in close games? I don't agree that toughness was the issue in these close games. Does BMac have options (key word ... plural)? If Falzon becomes the new streaky Demps and Law doesn't shoot that well, it's going to be more of the same in close games. NU needs something close to Falzon to be consistent as well as a versatile second/third scorer. I don't think they are out of the realm of possibility, but neither of those is clear right now.
  • Who is starting at the 2? If Ash is the man ... uh oh.
  • Is there another defender besides Law?
  • A simple one: The Lumpkin factor. If Lumpkin's minutes are in the 20s again, forget it: it's more of the same. A good team can't have somebody on the court who can barely play offense.
5) The schedule - I agree with what everybody has said. If I'm Collins, I'm looking for a way to renegotiate some of these OOC games. The schedule is too tough for this uncertain group.

Yes, yes, I hate the weak schedule also. And I agree with you if you're saying the OOC can prepare a team better for the conference. But this isn't that group.

If NU is looking at Dayton, two out of three from ND, Colorado and Texas as well as an ACC game and a Big East game, you're talking about the strong potential for at least four top-60 OOC games. I'd get that down to two and schedule more 150-200 RPI/KenPom games.

Like everybody else, I have a lot of "ifs" in my post. I HATE if teams.

So what's realistic?

I think NU is covered at center and Law's defense will help. Can they get 23 ppg from Falzon, Law and a freshman to account for Falzon's production this year and the loss of Demps 15 ppg? I think so, so I think an NIT bubble is reasonable (whoopee).

Can one of the freshmen make an impact? If I find one in late November, this is an NIT team.

If two of the freshmen make a strong impact and Falzon or Law make incredible strides, things could be interesting. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, but don't ask me to make that bet.
 
1 a) Where do you make up for Demps on offense in the first 22 games of the year? Yes, we've seen all the stats for his last nine games. That means he had 22 games of pretty mediocre offensive production and 20%+ from three.

Demps play was maddening for much of this season. I feel okay about losing him, though he made plays at times that whomever replaces him won't make. Of course, maybe the guy that replaces him will make play that Demps didn't make.

I really hope Brown plays more than Ash next year, as I worry Ash will still be a bit player, and if Brown isn't better, we'll probably be in trouble. Maybe Ash will make major strides this offseason and prove me wrong!
 
Pardon is an improvement over Olah. Law is back, which is huge. Lindsey has the ability to replace most of Demps' production on the wing. Falzon will be improved. Among other things, I would expect that lineup to be a better rebounding squad, particularly on the offensive boards.

NIT team. Then Collins needs to get a top point guard in the next recruiting class.
 
I don't feel like we've had the full, detailed, end-of-the-season breakdown, so let me start with these two general questions.

1) What is a realistic expectation for next year?
2) What does the team need to reach that expectation or simply improve next year? Can all of us agree with the assumption that if they improve by two games this is an NIT team? I'm not saying that's automatic, but I think it's doable and a good starting point.

For now, I won't sway the conversation with my view. I'll throw that out later.

Let me just start with a very simple answer. They need options and consistency. More from me later.
The NIT needs to be the minimum accepted expectation for next year, and a top-4 seed should be a realistic expectation.

As far as improvement, here's what I think we need:
  • Pardon needs to put on enough weight (read: muscle) to be an effective defender in the post compensating for his shorter height. He doesn't need to match Olah's defensive efforts, but there needs to be significant improvement there
  • Vic Law needs to pick up where he left off offensively in 2015
  • Lindsey needs to continue to become a consistent player - he had a few great games this year, and far too many where he was really just not good. Compared to his performance in 2015 though, 2016 was a big jump forward. It needs to continue to 2017, and he needs to be the effective 2-guard that he has the potential to be
  • Lumpkin will still get minutes, because he is still the best defender on this team. He needs to be more consistent from game to game though, and he needs to at least present the threat of an offensive game. Looking at the stats from this year, while he did very little scoring, lineups featuring him had the 2nd-best offensive performance behind Pardon.
  • Ash needs to be able to play defense. We're going to need his minutes significantly barring a grad transfer at the 2, and he needs to put in a lot of work this summer to be B1G-ready
  • Skelly and Falzon to continue on their track from this year
  • The freshmen to provide a similar level of impact from the last two classes
 
Secondary. Ballhandler.

What has stuck out to me watching the NCAA games (and some of the higher level NIT games) is that these teams have 2 or more players who look very comfortable handling the ball. That doesn't mean they are constantly creating their own shot or breaking down the defense, but handle the ball well enough to pick out a pass or run a set. After BMac, I don't know that we have anyone who can do that.

Teams will take the ball out of BMac's hands, what happens after that is the difference between no postseason, NIT, or NCAA.

I think our defense will be improved as we'll have better athletes at the 2 and 5. We'll also have the ability to put Law and Lumpkin on the court at the same time. If you run out BMac--Lindsey--Law--Lumpkin--Pardon, that can be a defense that will give a lot of people problems. I don't think we'll see much of the switching zone next year, which I believe was in place solely so that we could give Demps heavy minutes w/o completely exposing our bigs to constant foul trouble.

My X-factor is Rapolas. There's so much Coble in him that it's hard not to be excited for his possible impact as a frosh. He can shoot the three well enough to be respected on the perimeter, but then can actually put the ball on the floor and shows strong and crafty interior moves. He can be that stretch 4 that really makes Collins' offense hum (also why Skelly has been working to extend his range).

I've said it a few times, but we need scorers, not just shooters. Brown and Rapolas are scorers, but they will be frosh...there's just not real way to know what to expect.

Tell me if I'm wrong. Here's a number of possessions you can depend on in every game from NU:
  • A Lumpkin three-point miss to "establish" him
  • On the low end, two three-pointers in the first four or five seconds of the shot clock - usually from the horribly streaky Falzon or Demps
  • Again on the low end, two easy buckets by the opponent as a result of missed switches on defense
Somebody will say that's the price of business. But in all these cases, I think these are INCREDIBLY avoidable.

Hey man, that's just the price of business. But in all seriousness, I think a couple of these will be worked out naturally. The Lumpkin threes will belong to Law and Rapolas, imo--though this is based in my thought that Lumpkin will not start next year, and if he does will not get more than 15 MPG (as the season wears on). I think we're not going to see the switch defense much going forward. As I said above, I think we're now capable of putting an athletic enough M2M lineup out there, or a straight zone that has real length. Unfortunately, those quick threes are just part of the way Collins is gonna run things. We can only hope that the shots come from a more consistent source.
 
With the way the game has morphed and the increasing emphasis on putting four or five guys on the floor who can shoot the three, you almost have to have the ability to switch every screen. If not, you're giving away far too many open looks beyond the arc. With Olah no longer on the floor and an obvious target to be placed in the screen-and-roll or pick-and-pop, I would expect to see NU play more switching man to man.
 
Do names like Law and Falzon mean anything to you. Pardon will score more then Olah and who knows what Brown and Rap might bring

Yes they mean something to me. 2 guys who average 8 points and 4 rebounds, no assists who shoot 39% from the floor and can't dribble.

But we're stockpiling all these blue chip recruits for some day....
 
The NIT is a realistic expectation.

This is a really good thread. The only thing I'd add is I'd love to see Skelly try to play center. A lineup with him, Mac, Lindsey, Law and Falzon has strong 3-point shooting, speed and the ability to switch positions on defense.
 
Yes they mean something to me. 2 guys who average 8 points and 4 rebounds, no assists who shoot 39% from the floor and can't dribble.

But we're stockpiling all these blue chip recruits for some day....
Oh look, an MC post!

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Yes they mean something to me. 2 guys who average 8 points and 4 rebounds, no assists who shoot 39% from the floor and can't dribble.

But we're stockpiling all these blue chip recruits for some day....

Everybody who pays attention knows that I'm very, very cautious about Law. His frosh stats did not match his recruiting hype. He has had two injuries to the same shoulder, I believe.

But, he did play good defense and you're focusing on only offense. I think he has a good chance to improve on offense anyway, with Bryant passing him the ball and getting more put-backs at the basket.

As for Aaron, he showed more moxey as the season wore on. We groaned when he took the ball to the hole, but that's something he can do that many shooters cannot even attempt, and I look for him to improve that part of his game.

In other words, they have ONE season of Big Ten ball apiece under their belts. Sheesh!
 
The NIT is a realistic expectation.

This is a really good thread. The only thing I'd add is I'd love to see Skelly try to play center. A lineup with him, Mac, Lindsey, Law and Falzon has strong 3-point shooting, speed and the ability to switch positions on defense.

I think an NIT bid would be disappointing. A few teams, like OSU, should improve, but Iowa has to replace two star players. This year was our season to be happy-happy-joy-joy about the NIT. It didn't happen, but we should keep the goal where Collins originally set it for 2016-17, which is the NCAAs. I like some of our role players to make the leap as upperclassmen. Don't you?
 
I don't think it's all that difficult to get that kind of production from some combination of a tad-improved Falzon and a healthy Law.

Sure, with enough shots, they can score as much as he did, but can either one create off the dribble like Demps? We really lack that without Tre.
 
Everybody who pays attention knows that I'm very, very cautious about Law. His frosh stats did not match his recruiting hype. He has had two injuries to the same shoulder, I believe.

The article I read (which I cannot find anymore) said that they were to different shoulders. I'd be more worried if both were to the left shoulder, although given that it is his non-dominant side not as bad as if it was to his right shoulder.
 
Yes they mean something to me. 2 guys who average 8 points and 4 rebounds, no assists who shoot 39% from the floor and can't dribble.

But we're stockpiling all these blue chip recruits for some day....

Die. Just die.
 
I think an NIT bid would be disappointing. A few teams, like OSU, should improve, but Iowa has to replace two star players. This year was our season to be happy-happy-joy-joy about the NIT. It didn't happen, but we should keep the goal where Collins originally set it for 2016-17, which is the NCAAs. I like some of our role players to make the leap as upperclassmen. Don't you?

YUP. 100%

We are on track. Actually ahead of schedule on the Coach K plan. Duke had a losing season in Year 3 of the Coach K plan. Year 4, they made it to the Dance, and they haven't looked back since.
 
Sure, with enough shots, they can score as much as he did, but can either one create off the dribble like Demps? We really lack that without Tre.

Isiah Brown. He's Tre on steroids when it comes to creating his own shot. Not as good a three point shooter, but much better on dribble drive, mid range pull ups, taking it to the rack. Dude was scoring 40, 50 points for a reason. He can put it in the basket. Nor saying he's going to star or start for us as a frosh, but he will provide some scoring punch. Between his and other recruiting additions, and the maturation of the returning players, we won't see any slip up on O IMO.
 
Yes they mean something to me. 2 guys who average 8 points and 4 rebounds, no assists who shoot 39% from the floor and can't dribble.

But we're stockpiling all these blue chip recruits for some day....

Mystic Cat

You're criticizing freshmen performance which is very admirable. Why didn't you use the stat that in Big Ten conference play Law shot 44% from three which put him at number five in the entire conference? And why didn't you make the point that Law grabbed 4.6 rebounds in 18 minutes of conference play?

Is the sample of 18 Big Ten games not relevant? Or is it that first half non con play is more relevant in projecting future performance?

And by all means, let's restrict the discussion to offensive production. Since Law is the team's second best defender.
 
hmmmm.... many comments. Some completely misplaced anger from completely misplaced people....
On balance, if we can hook a 5th year or foreign recruit we probably need a veteran big the most. Pardon had some big games but was also pushed around a lot against the stronger inside teams. A year in the weight room will help immensely. Falzon has a fine stroke, but also had some moments of inside presence which could be enhanced significantly by next year. A year in the weight room will help immensely. Benson is very promising but young, and is guaranteed to be inconsistent, especially early in the season. Yes, a year in the weight room will help immensely. Of our 2 glue guys, Skelly is by far the most promising, especially inside. As we saw, a year in the weight room helped, and ....... immensely. Hence my hope for a veteran big over a shooting guard, another area where we might be thin.

We didn't really click this year, but what we are gaining in recruits and experience could be at least as good as what we lost, at least by next February. Excepting MSU, this recruiting class is ballpark competitive with everyone in the big 10 regardless of rivals rankings. We have a great scorer coming in, a big with a fine offer list, and an elite forward (less a position of need, obviously). People seem to forget how inconsistent our senior stars were during this season. Oh, and about Vic Law, a potentially great player. There is reason to hope for more and better next year. Expectations? Guarantees? Keep them in check for now.
 
Mystic Cat

You're criticizing freshmen performance which is very admirable. Why didn't you use the stat that in Big Ten conference play Law shot 44% from three which put him at number five in the entire conference? And why didn't you make the point that Law grabbed 4.6 rebounds in 18 minutes of conference play?

Is the sample of 18 Big Ten games not relevant? Or is it that first half non con play is more relevant in projecting future performance?

And by all means, let's restrict the discussion to offensive production. Since Law is the team's second best defender.

Medill,

Just a reaction to all the posters who informed us Vic law was the difference between no nit, and an ncaa bid this year. The injured guy is always the best player and our luck sucks.

And I was using his and Falzons freshman performance because.... That's all we have. I have no idea how good either will eventually be, just that both freshman years left much to be desired.
 
On balance, if we can hook a 5th year or foreign recruit we probably need a veteran big the most.

I think it's absolutely crucial that we bring in a 5th year player, but I don't care where he plays as long as he has scoring ability.
 
Medill,

Just a reaction to all the posters who informed us Vic law was the difference between no nit, and an ncaa bid this year. The injured guy is always the best player and our luck sucks.

And I was using his and Falzons freshman performance because.... That's all we have. I have no idea how good either will eventually be, just that both freshman years left much to be desired.

I don't think anyone said this...the most optimistic posters here had him helping us win like 2 more games.

I don't know if you know this, but 8 and 4 as a frosh forward at NU puts you in some good company. I believe the last one to do that was Crawford in '09.
 
... Hence my hope for a veteran big over a shooting guard, another area where we might be thin ...

SpartCat, I was dead set on a two-guard before your post, but you make a damn good argument for the big man.

However, on second thought about your post, I don't think there's room for a 5th year scholarship.

Law
Pardon
Lindsey
Ash
McIntosh
Taphorn
Lumpkin
Falzon
Skelly
Brown
Benson
Ivanauskus
Vassar (d'oh!!)
 
Oh, I just wanted to add.

If someone wants to crap on my positive outlook you can go blow a porpoise. Where's the friggin' joy if you can't be bullish on your team and its players. I mean really. Maybe you'd have more friends if you'd learn to keep your mouth shut.

Go find a homer board, homer.
 
Too many hilarious replies. Thewildcat2011 was great with the video clip. Great comparable of Drew Crawford of being in that 8ppg, 4 rpg range in his first year. I was thinking of another guy who is NU's all time leading scorer Shurna who averaged 7 ppg and a couple of rpg.

NU will need Falzon to make a big jump next year and become a top scorer for NU, Law needs to be a double digit scorer and above avg. defender, Lindsey to put 5-7 more ppg on his average and Brown, Benson and Rap to give some offensive punch off the bench. All have the skills to do so, now the fun is to see if it happens.
 
Medill,

Just a reaction to all the posters who informed us Vic law was the difference between no nit, and an ncaa bid this year. The injured guy is always the best player and our luck sucks.

And I was using his and Falzons freshman performance because.... That's all we have. I have no idea how good either will eventually be, just that both freshman years left much to be desired.

Uh never mind. Not taking the bait.
 
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