Decent defender and a reasonably good catch and shoot guy who can occasionally work inside—the type of guy who can beat a zone if you can move the ball around.
The end of the Collins era
- Thread starter MC_Cat
- Start date
- Status
Some 15 years ago or so my mother in law told me, very proudly, that my brother in law had won an award while playing for his local tiny ass MN town high school. It was proudly displayed on her fridge: best field goal percentage.
Behind it were the stats of all of the team's players. My bro in law had shot an impressive 6 of 8 for the season.
Why do people think Ryan Greer has come so far? Because he no longer looks totally out of place out there? Greer averages 4 points and 2 assists per game as a senior. He's not exactly a big difference maker on a team that desperately needs play-makers.
"Beran is literally our most efficient offensive player. He leads the team in offensive rating (112.9),"
Only if you include the non-conference games.
Against Big Ten opponents, he's 4th on the team in offensive rating.
Nicholson 137.6, Nance 109.1, Buie 108.9, Beran 106.8, Greer 101.6, Young 101, Berry 96.1... Audige 90.7
But your point is generally correct - Beran is definitely "efficient" but he is not productive, because he is very selective.
Is Beran not shooting because he doesn't want to shoot or because Nance, Buie and Audige really want to shoot and deprive him of chances? He's 6th on the team in attempted field goals per 40 minutes at 9.2.
Buie, Nance and Audige are 16.0, 15.3 and 16.7 attempts / 40.
In fact, Audige is our least efficient offensive player other than Simmons (according to offensive rating) and shoots most frequently. Seems like a bad approach.
Beran is also 9th on the team in Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes at 1.3, so he isn't going to the basket much at all. Only Greer and Roper go to the line less frequently. (Nicholson 13.3, Young 7.2, Nance 4.6 lead the team)
I can definitely agree that some people blame him for too much and there are other things involved that contribute to all the issues his teams have had.
On the other hand if you can’t see all of his deficiencies when it comes to game situations, substitutions, instilling confidence in players etc, I don’t know what to tell you. There is enough talent on this team to be better than they are. If Matt Painter is coaching this team I’m pretty confident in saying they are better than 5-11. In fact, I’m pretty confident in saying that the majority of Big Ten coaches would have this team with a much better record.
I will grant you that maybe someone could make Buie a better defender. I just can’t understand why his decisions are so poor.
"Much better?" I don't agree with that.
Better ... yes. They would play better defense. But this team would still get killed down low. I don't care who's coaching. Nance and Beran would not suddenly become more physical players.
However, Painter would never run with such a weak, short front line. That's one of the ways he differentiates his teams.
You understand you described his improvement just now, correct? And if we took another board vote, I am sure my position would be supported. As so many so easily say to me (even in this thread) - “if you cannot see that, I can’t help you”. Even still, ask our +/- guru - let’s see if he chooses to support what his own stats say about Greer vs. just opposing me because I think Collins should not be fired.
Check him out in the conference stats and not the juiced-up overall stats.
Admittedly, I can see the argument that he needs a few more shots. I also wonder if the three position in this offense is just too incredibly passive the way it's taught and built.
I can tell you why I think Greer has improved...
He definitely doesn't fill the box score and is a fairly reluctant shooter. However...
When Greer has been on the court, we have outscored our Power 5 opponents 674-643.
When he has been on the bench, we have been outscored by our Power 5 opponents 711-650.
Thats a swing of 82 points over 19 games --- about 4.3 points a game.
If you dig a little deeper, the Buie/Greer backcourt has been quite good, we have outscored our Power 5 opponents 410-365 when those two are paired. Thats our most productive 2 man combo.
Greer is a facilitator and the team plays better when he is out there with Buie, specifically.
For what it is worth, that chemistry existed last year, they just didn't play together very much at all.
I'm not so much opposing you, as I am just tired of people praising Greer and ripping Boo. Greer adds next to nothing. I don't care what +/- says. If we played him more, we would not win more and his +/- would quickly crater. Boo makes mistakes, but he also carries us sometimes. Boo is a playmaker who just doesn't have quite enough talent to be a consistent star at this level. The new and improved Greer still isn't even close.
I do admit Greer is better than he used to be. He will make a three-pointer once in a while now and he is a little more aggressive driving the ball. That said, he averages 4 points and 2 assists per game, so he's not a real difference maker.
So, my overall point is that if Greer is who we are looking to as evidence that players get better under Collins, then that is a sad statement about NU hoops these days.
Finally, I'm not really interested in changing your mind. I think your opinion is perfectly valid and there is no reason for you to change it. I admit I don't exactly know what the right answer is here. I just know I'm sick of the way we are losing. I was sick of the way we were losing under Carmody too, but when Collins came along, we started losing in a different way. It was fun for a while to lose in a different way. Maybe a coaching change can be fun, even if we keep losing, because it might be different.
PWB, I don’t feel there are many or any who that are taking an approach that CCC is blameless for this mess. I also believe any fair-minded person realizes that CCC is not the sole reason we aren’t very good.
Conversely, I have been spouting off since before tip off this season that I didn’t think we had the talent to go to the tourney. Many disagree. I have been accused of creating a narrative to defend CCC. I can assure you there was no motivation to say this as a CYA for This season. I don’t know CCC and It’s played out pretty much exactly like I predicted. I have no dog in the fight to whether he stays or goes.
why is it so unbelievable that some have differing opinions that you and others? Gordie gets attacked on here way more than any anti-CCC poster. Shouldn’t he be allowed to post his views without the incredulous statements of disbelief? That’s what flames all these threads. I lost my cool with what I thought was an unbalanced perspective by you. I admit that I’ve been an A$¥hole to you and others, I regret that and am going to try to keep my comments to the facts and save my attacks for opposition fans. I hope to be better for the rest of the season at least.
Meanwhile, wrestling team just finished sixth in BT! And is ranked top 15 in the nation
Appreciate the detailed response. I’m certainly frustrated as well, but attribute that frustration largely to our inability to get the talent we need (even though it’s better than it used to be; it’s just not relatively better). We can’t in any way be sad that Greer has developed, but what’s sad to me (and I think what you are saying) is that we can’t get a better player right out of the gate than Greer. (It’s also sad that Buie is looked upon to be our leader, to which he is not up to the task talent-wise).
Probably have at least similar issues. And though NU does take kids from various places, I have to imagine that it would be even harder to confirm education level. Not saying it cannot be done. Just that it is likely a longer process. But with the wokeness being taught in schools here now, hard to say that the education is not better overseas
Although many in Europe learn English and it is the more common international business language. Not suere it is good enough for being able to compete at NU but servisable for other things
It more than likely is. Sports is likely not as big there, They have to get enough education there to compete outside of sports.
The most athletic talent here tends to be AA while there it is much less so. We have trouble getting in AA talent partly because they are often behind in educational performance. I would guess that is less true of the European or Australian student athletes. They generally don't have 100 schools trying to get them into their program like we see here with the best athletes
Because he has not recruited Ukrainian players?
Right…. wokeness is the problem with American education. Not the anti-intellectualism of a certain party.
Love this argument. Fine, shut the program down then.
More realistically, BC showed you can have some success w right coaching. Just needed to recruit.
CCC showed you can recruit to NU, just need better coaching.
Some coach will either be able to recruit, develop and in game coach - or be smart and humble enough to surround himself with the right assistants.
But, stp, I’ll come coach NU for a quarter of the salary as long as the balance of the historical budget remains for assistant coaches and Ryan and Co add some NIL money. And I won’t do any worse than CCC. Nobody really can.
Until that contract expires with three more years of crappy data making him that much more undesirable.
That must have been some defense against one of the worst teams in the B1G…
Chicken and the egg. Seems that fan support has been there for good teams. A cubs fan just keep showing up. Sox and apparently NU fans say we will support when you field something worth supporting.
So run a good team out there and then let’s talk about the fans.
As much as many people think along these lines, I respectfully just don’t see that there would be much of a difference. I watch plenty of college BB and am always amazed at how much more athletic other teams are, and how other teams’ players have the ability to convert shots at a higher rate, especially at crunch time, than our players. I am not a coach (though I consider myself a good ref) but I just don’t see that much difference in anyone’s offensive schemes to account for such a difference in coaching (with exceptions for Purdue and Illinois, given their front line strength, and maybe Wisconsin (who we have beaten quite often under Collins, by the way)). That athleticism also translates to better defense; some NU guys have had that ability (Law, Sanjay, Pardon, Audige), but most just don’t quite have it. It’s about the players. I wish Collins had better ones, but he doesn’t. Maybe the year after the NCAA was his ultimate undoing, but maybe he did just get fortunate during the NCAA year. Either way, it will be awful hard for another coach coming in and getting better players unless NU changes its approach. Maybe a coaching change would realistically help as part of changing our approach.
Tell that to all those parents in San Francisco. Maybe we should focus on improving our struggling public education system by fixing schools, instead of simply renaming them.
Are you in fact officiating now, Gordie? If so, kudos to you. I called for 30 years but have been away from it for well over a decade now. Miss it so much. Still have dreams about it, so my wife won't let me sleep with a whistle in mouth.
Thanks for this post. It’s demonstrates some reflection, and probably wasn’t fun for you to write
I think CCC’s biggest weakness as a coach is the way in which he deploys his players. It’s inconsistent and scattershot.
And that’s how we’ve had one game where Williams (more confident than he ever should be) and Greer (afraid to even have the ball) taking late threes. (I think it was Providence.)
Against Rutgers, a chance for the win, we ran a set play that resulted in Boo never touching it, in Beran passing up an open look, and in Audige chucking at the buzzer. That’s a case where you’ve literally got the last guy you want with the ball doing the last think you’d want him to do with it.
It just seems like CCC doesn’t have enough confidence to establish a core group and ride with them.
I, for one, would love a game where only six or seven guys got double figure minutes. I’d love to see Boo and Nance on the court for 34 minutes each. But it just never happens — and not because he’s pressing or attacking or tiring guys out — but just because he chooses to play worse guys more minutes.
I don’t care to look into it (maybe Cappy or PWB or Dugan could) but I’d imagine NU’s players’ mpg has the highest standard deviation in the conference.
To the contrary, I know a lot. This team has gone nowhere with Nance. He’s soft and at best a 6-10 perimeter shooter and definitely not an inside presence. There’s a reason he came to Northwestern and not to a top program. This team is gone nowhere with Nance and time to move on. He’s not a killer or “go to” guy under the gun. There’s a reason he came to Northwestern not to a top program.
There's three (at least) of us here now? Nice to know. I'm twenty years in (baseball, football, basketball, volleyball, soccer). Finally taking a break from HS games this football and basketball season because of new job. But I'll be back.
The Plus/minus numbers reflect our relative success when a player is on the court.
It is dependent on how the coach uses the player - who he plays with.
Greer is playing 50% of the game. He has the best +/- on the team other than Williams.
Everybody on the team other than Beran has a positive +/- when they play with Greer.
These are facts that are not easily dismissed, even if they don't align with your opinion...
Greer and Buie are the best two man combination on the team.
When you say "I don't care about +/-" it is the same as saying "The score doesn't matter."
Buie with Greer 410-365. Buie without Greer? 640-694
They should be our starting backcourt.
Well I can't get you the standard deviation of each team's players' minutes, but I can tell you that our two "go-to" lineups, the two that get the largest share of minutes, are each averaging about 4 minutes a game.Thanks for this post. It’s demonstrates some reflection, and probably wasn’t fun for you to write
I think CCC’s biggest weakness as a coach is the way in which he deploys his players. It’s inconsistent and scattershot.
And that’s how we’ve had one game where Williams (more confident than he ever should be) and Greer (afraid to even have the ball) taking late threes. (I think it was Providence.)
Against Rutgers, a chance for the win, we ran a set play that resulted in Boo never touching it, in Beran passing up an open look, and in Audige chucking at the buzzer. That’s a case where you’ve literally got the last guy you want with the ball doing the last think you’d want him to do with it.
It just seems like CCC doesn’t have enough confidence to establish a core group and ride with them.
I, for one, would love a game where only six or seven guys got double figure minutes. I’d love to see Boo and Nance on the court for 34 minutes each. But it just never happens — and not because he’s pressing or attacking or tiring guys out — but just because he chooses to play worse guys more minutes.
I don’t care to look into it (maybe Cappy or PWB or Dugan could) but I’d imagine NU’s players’ mpg has the highest standard deviation in the conference.
That's a problem. Our coach has no lineup that he really believes in.
Our top 13 lineups, by minutes played, add up to about 20 minutes a night.
To me, thats a big problem.
If you go conference-only, Beran still leads the team in effective FG%, is 2nd in 2-pt FG% (behind Williams), shoots better from 3 than Buie, Audige and Berry, and comes in just behind Nance and Buie in overall offensive efficiency. So I still think there's a case to be made for him getting more involved in the offense.
- Status
