This one looks to be a doozy...
For the last 5 years, MSU fans have dreaded seeing @Northwestern pop up on their schedule due to Boo Buie's ownership of Sparty. With Buie's help, we have beaten MSU 4 seasons in a row, which I'm assuming has never happened before; if it has, it's probably been 60 or 90 years. From his first effort on Dec 18th, 2019 in a loss where he scored 26 points on 8-13 shooting with 5 3s, 4 assists and no turnovers, to his last home game against them on Jan 7th 2024 where he scored 19 points with 10 assists, 3 steals and no turnovers, good times were had by all NU fans. So can we keep it going this year...?
Izzo looks to have his best team since pre-Covid when Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman roamed the court. After 4 years of relative mediocrity (they still made the tourney all 4 years), they are back to doing what the best Izzo teams do - crashing the offensive glass, rapid ball movement on offense, pushing the ball in transition, blocking lots of shots & forcing teams into terrible shooting nights. They have 1 inexplicable weakness - their highest-volume 3-point shooters can't hit 3s, like, at all. It's inexplicable b/c they are 4th in the country at FT shooting, with 8 players shooting 80% or better, yet 5 of their top 6 3-point shooters by volume are averaging 25.5% from 3 combined. What's scarier is that of those 5 players, 4 of them have shot significantly better over their career prior to this season (Akins career 38.6%, Holloman career 39.8%, Fidler 36.4% at a lower level, Booker 33.3%). If any of these guys figure it out against us...gulp. Holloman might already be there, as he's shooting 44% over the last 8 games.
Anyway, with that out of the way, let's look at the...10(!) players in Tom Izzo's rotation. MSU is 10th in the country in bench minutes, giving 42.8% of available time to the second five guys on the team.
Starters
PG - #1 6'2" Jeremy Fears. The former #1 player from IL, Fears played 12 games last year before suffering a season-ending injury and subsequent medical redshirt. This year, he has stepped in seamlessly for AJ Hoggard who transferred to Vandy. Fears currently has the 3rd-highest assist rate in the country (#1, of course, is Braden Smith), averaging over 6 assists per game with an assist/TO ratio of 3:1. He's not a score-first PG, but has hit double digits in 5 games so far this year, and despite not taking that many shots, he has shot the 2nd-most FTs on the team. He's one of MSU's few players with a high 3-point %, but on very low volume - though he has shot as many 3s in the last 2 games as he did in the previous 13. Also averages 1 steal per game.
CG - #5 6'2" Tre Holloman. A former 4-star recruit and #1 player in MN, Holloman has developed over the past few seasons from little-used reserve, to backup PG, to starting CG. As if Fears wasn't good enough, Holloman has the 60th-best assist rate in the country with a 2.7:1 assist/TO ratio, but in contrast to Fears, Holloman looks to shoot more, specifically from long-range where he is a pure catch-and-shoot guy. Last year in 20 mpg, he shot 42.5% from 3, however as mentioned, he had struggled at the start of this year but seems to be regaining his form. He has struggled with layups and midrange shots, so if we can run him off the 3-point line, hopefully we can shut him down like we did last year, where he only scored 4 points in 23 minutes. He also averages just under 1 steal per game.
Wing - #3 6'4" Jaden Akins. Merely the #3 player in MI in 2021, Akins has stuck around for 4 years and is now the senior leader of this team in his 3rd season as a starter. We have played against him 5 times in his career, and he has only had 1 good game against us - last year in our 88-74 win where he scored 13 points with 4 boards, 2 assists & 2 turnovers. In the other 4 games, he is a combined 1-18 shooting, scoring 4 pts, 5 rebs, 2 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals. Let's hope things continue this way, b/c his game has taken a jump this year. Before this season, he scored 20+ points only 4 times, but has already done it 3 times this year. He takes the most shots on the team, shooting a blistering 61% from 2. He can create off the dribble, but Fears and Holloman frequently find him cutting to the rim or at the 3-point line. As mentioned, he's struggled from 3-point range this year at just 27.6% so far, though he's hit at 35% in the last 8 games, getting closer to his career average. He doesn't get to the FT line often, but shoots 89% there. Oh, and he also rarely turns the ball over or commits fouls.
PF - #0 6'9" Jaxon Kohler. A 4-star recruit from UT, Kohler has found his way into the starting lineup following the graduation of Malik Hall and Izzo preferring to have Xavier Booker come off the bench. Despite being a starter, he only plays about 20 mpg, though he is a monster rebounder - probably top-5 in the country. He has always been a defense-first player, averaging 5.9 defensive rebounds, 0.8 blocks and 0.5 steals per game this season, though this year he has been able to score at the rim and FT line efficiently for the first time.
C - #10 7'0" Szymon Zapala. The Polish Protector, Zapala hails from the village of Zabrze, which was tossed back and forth between German/Prussian and Polish rule for centuries, then governed by Nazis until the end of World War II. Also known for its historic coal mines. He is a 5th-year grad transfer from Longwood, where he had a breakout season for the Lancers after sitting on the bench for 3 years at Utah St receiving virtually zero playing time. Zapala has continued his strong play from last season, where he was a monster rebounder & shot-blocker, while also scoring efficiently at the rim. In only 16 mpg with MSU, he averages 6 pts, 5 rebs & 1 block per game while shooting 80% at the rim though on just 3 shots per game.
Reserves
CG - #11 6'3" Jase Richardson. A 4-star frosh from FL and son of former MSU/NBA legend Jason Richardson. Interestingly, the Spartans won the national championship in 2000 when Jason was a key reserve as a freshman, which remains the last national title won by the Big Ten...will history repeat this year? Anyway, Richardson the younger has been excellent off the bench this season for MSU, with just a couple games where he's struggled. He can score at all 3 levels, shooting 83% at the rim, 50% from midrange and 46% from 3, along with 83% at the FT line. Averages 9.5 points, 2.6 boards, a 2.2:1 assist/TO ratio, 1 steal and 0.4 blocks in 21 mpg.
Wing - #55 6'5" Coen Carr. A 4-star recruit, former #1 player in SC. Last year Carr had been in the rotation early on, before falling out of it right after we beat MSU in Jan. where he scored 0 points in 12 minutes. This year, he's back in the rotation, and the man loves to dunk. Nearly 40% of his shots are dunks, and when he's not dunking, he's...not super-efficient. Just 52% on layups and 12% on midrange shots. He's only taken 4 3s this year, but made two of them. He is a solid rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and is a good shot-blocker without fouling. A bit of a super-athletic junkyard dog.
Wing - #8 6'7" Frankie Fidler. A former 0-star recruit from Omaha, Fidler spent his first 3 seasons at Neb-Omaha and was their best player the past two seasons. He has really struggled to find his scoring touch at the higher level this season, averaging just 8.3 points per game with an eFG% of 39.4%. He began the year starting but was dropped from the lineup in favor of Holloman after 7 games. Since then, he averages just 14 mpg, and has done very little in their 4 conference games, scoring only 4 points, 2 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 1 assist and 1 turnover per game.
PF/C - #34 6'11" Xavier Booker. A 5-star recruit, former #1 player in IN. Booker has been a player who has always been seen as having a ton of potential, but not lived up to it. Last year, he didn't get consistent playing time until late Feb but was still largely a disappointment. This year, Izzo had him starting, but after 3 games he was dropped in favor of Kohler. He's another guy who is mainly a dunker, though he is MSU's version of Luke Hunger, as he shoots 3 3s per game but only makes 21%, despite being a 92% shooter at the FT line. Despite getting just 16 mpg, he averages 3 rebs & 1 block. He also scored 11 pts against both Minnesota & Nebraska, and 9 against OSU.
C - #15 6'11" Carson Cooper. A 0-star recruit that Izzo plucked out of IMG Academy, though he was likely on their radar being originally from Michigan and played in HS with Emoni Bates. Cooper, in his 3rd season with MSU, has found a role as the backup center the past two seasons. Like Akins, he played well in that same 88-74 loss where he scored 10 points with 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 turnovers in 16 minutes off the bench. Doesn't contribute much offensively, but is a good defensive rebounder and shot blocker. He does get to the line often when he plays, where he shoots 84%.
If it's a Blowout
Izzo has two 4-star frosh - #2 6'4" Kur Teng, and #7 6'5" Gehrig Normand. Nice luxury to have. Teng got 5 mins against Minny & scored 2 FTs with 1 reb. Normand got 2 mins against the Gophs & scored 5 pts.
I choose to believe we can win this game despite everything I typed above, as Jaden Akins is the only player on their roster who has won at the house of horrors known as Welsh-Ryan Arena. Illinois looks like world-beaters right now, and we handled them. MSU has played lights-out in conference play, but their hardest game so far has been at Ohio State who was down one starter when their students were still on break in a cavernous arena that was 2/3 full. We've had a week to get healthy and shake off the disappointments of the last two road games, we're back at home, and I think the team is going to up their game significantly. We beat them by 14 at home last year, we almost beat them in East Lansing without Berry and Big Matt, and we're going to beat them tomorrow.
67-66 'Cats
