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End of the Prime mystique

AdamOnFirst
NUCat320 said:
sports.yahoo.com

The Deion Sanders effect: Colorado sees record number of applications, including 50% spike from Black students

High school students want them some Coach Prime.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
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Applications are up 20% in a post Deion world… but CU was averaging a 10% annual increase in applications for over decade, so at least half of that is endogenous to the school.

Would be interesting to see if the trend would hold on into the future if he stays this soft and whiny and doesn’t win, but nobody seems to think he’ll be around enough for it to work
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UNLV QB takes redshirt due to NIL dispute

AdamOnFirst
Baz=Heisman said:
Major college sports are breaking, and rather quickly. I’m just sad.

Probably going to be completely destroyed if/when players are all paid a salary directly by a school (currently delayed by the courts on a technicality but not indefinitely).

I don’t think anyone had any issues with players getting $ for LEGITIMATE NIL (jersey sales cut, appearance fees for speaking at school sponsor events, etc.) but these NIL “collectives” have gotten completely out of control with no signs yet that they’ll be reigned in.

The world we grew up in no longer exists 😢.
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Well revenue sharing from the schools is starting within 2 years, so…
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OT: Legalizing Sports Gambling Was a Huge Mistake (Atlantic)

AdamOnFirst
fcmchi said:
If a student bookie out of Notre Dame was able to fix NU football and basketball games in the early ‘90’s, it will only get worse with the proliferation of legal gambling.
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That’s usually the exact opposite of how it works: legalizing something typically takes it out of the weird back alleys. Why would big corporation fix something and risk their billions of publicly traded dollars? It’s not some scrub trying to rub a few grand together in South Bend, it’s guys in corporate America with regulators up their ass.

There’s been one point shaving scandal in the NBA already and not only did it get sussed out fast, it’s laughable what a pointless exercise it was. The shavers and the player made a couple hundred thousand over a couple years shaving prop bets and the player gets banned for life from a league that pays millions a year on average. Ridiculous deal! Legal and regulated is usually FAR safer in almost every field.
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Where we stand post-Washington debacle

H
Baz=Heisman said:
We “just” need to get to 6-6 and Detroit with this schedule after last year’s work. I’m not giving up on that yet but also realize we have zero margin for error now. Have to win the home games at the lake and at Maryland and at Purdue. Possible? Yes. Difficult? Hell yes. But if Cam comes back and Jack feels more comfortable after the bye we’ve at least got a chance.
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Gonna be tough
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How many wins?

H
FeralFelidae said:
I just chose 30% as a back of the envelope calculation because the math is easy. Obviously each game should have its own individual odds, some will be higher than 30% and some will be lower. The math just becomes more complicated. I was just trying to make the point that we're not expected to lose every single game, even if the other team is favored in all of them.

I wrote a program that can calculate it, if you assign each game a percentage. Somebody else here (@ricko654321 I think?) used to do Monte Carlo simulations, which doesn't calculate the "exact" number but gets you really, really close.

To clarify:
The calculation for expected number of wins is easy: it's just the sum of the probability we assign to winning each individual game. If each game is 30%, with 8 games remaining, then it's just 8 X 0.3. If we assign a different probability to each game, then sum them.

My program or the Monte Carlo simulations is required if you want to calculate the odds of bowling. What are the odds of winning 6 or more games? That calculation gets much more complicated.
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If you use the Sargrin numbers the average is 20%. If you are going to do what you suggest you first have to take out the ones you really have no chance against. That leaves you with an average of 26% chance of winning each of the remaining games. That gives the potential of winning 1.56 additional games. Round up if you want but it puts the likelyhood at winning between 3 and 4 total games. Your 30% is high leading to the calculation of 2.4 additional wins putting us between 4 and 5 So you can either eliminate the 2 no chance games or use 20% rather than the 30%. number you are using are too high.
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UNLV QB takes redshirt due to NIL dispute

FeralFelidae
TheC said:
I'm confused about how all this works. Do the college players actually sign contracts?

Our grad students in my program here get a stipend and benefits. Though they are students and not employees, it is very much set up like an employer/employee relationship with a standard agreement. Not sure why this stuff with college athletes can't be more regulated and organized. No pro player would play without a contract.
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There are (and already were) stipends in place for Big Ten athletes beyond their scholarships. These NIL payments are something else that come from third parties, not from the school.
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UNLV QB takes redshirt due to NIL dispute

Baz=Heisman
Major college sports are breaking, and rather quickly. I’m just sad.

Probably going to be completely destroyed if/when players are all paid a salary directly by a school (currently delayed by the courts on a technicality but not indefinitely).

I don’t think anyone had any issues with players getting $ for LEGITIMATE NIL (jersey sales cut, appearance fees for speaking at school sponsor events, etc.) but these NIL “collectives” have gotten completely out of control with no signs yet that they’ll be reigned in.

The world we grew up in no longer exists 😢.
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O-line and NIL

A
I know offensive lineman NIL deals are not cheap. I can never see us winning a bidding war for a skill position player, but what if we tried to focus our money on bringing in the best offensive line we can afford. I think a great offensive line can make an average QB and RB look good, while with a bad offensive line you can have Mahomes back there and it will not matter. We need to do something outside the box or our talent evaluation has to be exponentially better than everyone else if we are going to survive in this new era.
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UNLV QB takes redshirt due to NIL dispute

AdamOnFirst
TheC said:
I'm confused about how all this works. Do the college players actually sign contracts?

Our grad students in my program here get a stipend and benefits. Though they are students and not employees, it is very much set up like an employer/employee relationship with a standard agreement. Not sure why this stuff with college athletes can't be more regulated and organized. No pro player would play without a contract.
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NIL deals would be typically contractually backed, yes. Your structure to maintain intern vs employee rules has very little bearing on a contract structured around selling of likeness and endorsement. I agree it makes zero sense Sluka didn't investigate this with the collective far in advance. It makes his agent look idiotic, although it isn't clear to me when exactly the agent was hired.
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UNLV QB takes redshirt due to NIL dispute

TheC
AdamOnFirst said:
From what I've seen stupidity/culpability on the part of the Sluka campt too. Their claim is that the UNLV OC "verbally promised" him "at least $100,000" if he came to UNLV. Sluka, his family, and his agent's next act was to... enroll at UNLV and start (after finishing his degree at Holy Cross, missing spring practice). He didn't say okay, set up a meeting with the collective, he didn't ask to talk to the donors, he didn't even talk to the head coach.

Finally like months later they offered him $12,000 and he went to the head coach, who basically told him that whatever the OC said didn't count.

Even if it was the head coach, the head coach doesn't hold the check book and doesn't make the payment. You say okay, set up a meeting with the collective, are you allowed to attend? They're who you're actually directly dealing with. I understand the coach maybe has to commit to helping raise the money or whatever. But some OC says something verbally and you just act on that?

Stupidity all around.
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I'm confused about how all this works. Do the college players actually sign contracts?

Our grad students in my program here get a stipend and benefits. Though they are students and not employees, it is very much set up like an employer/employee relationship with a standard agreement. Not sure why this stuff with college athletes can't be more regulated and organized. No pro player would play without a contract.
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End of the Prime mystique

G
curdog said:
“Increased the profile of the university” I guess is one way of putting it. Embarrassing the university is another (calling out the media, throwing the team under the bus when they lose, running off players). 4-8 last year and I predict the same this year.
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It’s been so embarrassing that applications and donations have skyrocketed.
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OT: Legalizing Sports Gambling Was a Huge Mistake (Atlantic)

AdamOnFirst
NUCat320 said:
@AdamOnFirst , @Purple Pile Driver , were you avid gamblers prior to the launch of free, legal, online outlets?

I’ve had friends who regularly gambled through ‘their guy’ (I never investigated further), but it was mostly football Saturdays and Sundays, considered decisions, never spur of the moment. It was, say, part of the Friday afternoon routine. Weird, not my bag, but not particularly destructive or risky.


The primary problem with ‘the apps’ is that they’re so good at separating you from cash. Changing in-game odds, low-odd parlays, all built to make you feel good for making the bet, whether you win or not. So different from what it looked like ‘traditionally’.

I tend to come from the same place as @TheC*, where limitations on advertising, perhaps allowable bets per day, perhaps types of bets allowed on apps, would probably be good things.





*On most issues, I think I have a similar viewpoint to TheC, except that I don’t call for the OC, the DC, the Head Coach, the PA announcer, and the entire training and equipment management staff to be fired by the end of the first half. When the Cats are bad, it’s gallows humor for me only.
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I wouldn't call myself an "avid" gambler. I love Vegas, which gambling is a solid part of, but my state still hasn't freaking legalized sports gambling so it's a pain in the ass to place wagers. I'll probably place a few a season once it's legalized. The casinos in my state also don't offer my favorite game so I almost never patronize them. I head to a neighboring state occasionally to sport gamble and play both of my favorite table games, but it's hard to find time with a family to do this too often.

I'll definitely be placing wagers consistently when gambling is legalized. Probably not on a weekly basis, but consistently throughout the season when I have a strong opinion about a particular game.

There are a million ways to seperate people from their money on their phone. You can buy freaking $40 purchases and groceries on freaking monthly payment plans of $10 each which then get charged to a credit card that even further delays your payment. People need to learn to control themselves, gambling is just another thing.
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