But you gotta take a few of those games off the board before you even start using 30% on the rest. I mean se supposedly have a 0.1% chance against dOSU and not a whole lot better against Mich
I just chose 30% as a back of the envelope calculation because the math is easy. Obviously each game should have its own individual odds, some will be higher than 30% and some will be lower. The math just becomes more complicated. I was just trying to make the point that we're not expected to lose every single game, even if the other team is favored in all of them.
I wrote a program that can calculate it, if you assign each game a percentage. Somebody else here (
@ricko654321 I think?) used to do Monte Carlo simulations, which doesn't calculate the "exact" number but gets you really, really close.
To clarify:
The calculation for expected number of wins is easy: it's just the sum of the probability we assign to winning each individual game. If each game is 30%, with 8 games remaining, then it's just 8 X 0.3. If we assign a different probability to each game, then sum them.
My program or the Monte Carlo simulations is required if you want to calculate the odds of bowling. What are the odds of winning 6 or more games? That calculation gets much more complicated.
