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How big is the bubble? Or: Why we are safe (2024 version)

Wrote something similar a year ago, so I'm going to cut and paste that and make changes based on 2024 situation.

The loss hurt many of us badly, but my guess is it didn't hurt NU at all. They lost in a close game on the road against a tourney team. This is not like losing to Merrimack or Chicago State.

Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 26 teams that are "on the bubble." That is, they *could* get in if they don't win their conference tournament. Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.

The following 25 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 9th, 10th, or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 13 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only 12 deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.

NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS as the top-ranked ninth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't drop too much at this late date, and they're not going to drop 20 spots if they lose to Minnesota.

9 seeds - TCU, Oklahoma, Mississippi St.
10 seeds - Nebraska, Michigan St., Florida Atlantic, Villanova
11 seeds - Virginia, St. John's, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Indiana St.
12 seed - Princeton
On the outside: Colorado, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, James Madison, Iowa, Providence, Kansas St., Syracuse

Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of 12 gets hot and wins their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that Virginia lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU. If all 12 somehow make it (which is probably impossible since many share a conference), NU still right now has a buffer between them.

Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? AAC is the most obvious choice, as FAU is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Drake makes a run in the MVC, would they get an invite in addition to Indiana State, or at the expense of them?

So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is a 10 seed at worst, with an eight or nine still reasonable.

Bricks near the Wildcat statue are doomed

For many years, I have had two bricks near the Wildcat statue. I purchased one in my name when they first became avaialble, then I purchased a second one in my daughter’s name when she graduated from NU. I’m sure I’m not alone in stating the purchased bricks were more than just a donation to NU. They were a gesture aimed at posterity.

I had hoped that everyone’s bricks would be transferred to the new stadium, either inside or just outside the facility. But today, I was advised by NU Asst. VP and Deputy Director of Athletics Jesse Marks that the bricks have been “salvaged” and will be returned to donors later this spring.

This is very disappointing, and I asked Marks what my daughter and I were supposed to do with the bricks after they are sent back. He wrote, “People usually enjoy having them on display in their office or home.” I’m not so sure about that.

Mullins out at SIU OT?

I only bring this up as Coach Lowery was a pretty successful and well liked coach at SIU and the word is that the big donors have their wallets open. Coach Lowery has coached under some good Coaches, Coach Weber, Coach Painter..he is from Evansville Indiana, played at SIU....but really had a black and white career as coach at SIU...4 winning seasons including an NCAA 4 seed.and 3 straight NCAA appearances ..then the wheels fell off and he finished with 5 losing seasons culminating with a 5-23 season. I am guessing he has really enjoyed the last couple years at NU....

Free advice to Gragg

(If you are still here, which I fear might be true)

The new stadium will take two years to build. NU is looking to sell suites, enhance game day amenities and services, I would start looking at your operating model NOW! If you are asking folks to spend $ on these new amenities it needs to be well organized and deliver a true service per the $ being asked. Based on your track record this seems to a gap in your skill set, so hire someone to focus on this and deliver.

Yours truly,

NUChicago

Need a FL Alum

C’mon guys. We’ve had a pretty remarkable run. If you’re going be in Evanston, let’s grab a drink. Ok, it damages the insulting anonymous people on the internet concept - but I think we can move through it. PPD met me and gave my love interest some silly artifact I can’t even remember. We battle and I would love to bend an elbow with him. Gcg drives me nuts - love to do a shot with him. We don’t have to agree on everything to find camaraderie. And @PurpleWhiteBoy - I’m so curious about you.

I get we live in world of hate and be hated. Gcg, sd, and anyone not named coral - I really won’t make it awkward. I’ll be all about having fun. Ask Holland. Hell, CMT and glades both were involved in violence based threads with me and I would love to meet them. NU Purple Let’s Go Cats

Last home game - who wants a free drink!
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Big Ten TV Schedule: Week Eighteen (3/4-3/10)

All times CENTRAL. All games available nationally unless otherwise indicated. I will add announcers as they are assigned. This is the final week of the regular season.

First, the NU games:

Northwestern @ Michigan State
Wednesday, March 6
6:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Brandon Gaudin
Color: Robbie Hummel

Minnesota @ Northwestern
Saturday, March 9
8:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Dave Revsine
Color: Brian Butch

And the rest:

Tuesday, March 5

Purdue @ Illinois
6:00 PM, Peacock (streaming only)
PxP: Noah Eagle
Color: Robbie Hummel
Color: Stephen Bardo

Wednesday, March 6

Indiana @ Minnesota
8:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Cory Provus
Color: Stephen Bardo

Thursday, March 7

Rutgers @ Wisconsin
6:00 PM, FS1
PxP: Brandon Gaudin
Color: Robbie Hummel

Sunday, March 10

Nebraska @ Michigan
11:00 AM, BTN
PxP: Connor Onion
Color: Nick Bahe

Wisconsin @ Purdue
11:30 AM, FOX
PxP: Jason Benetti
Color: Robbie Hummel

Ohio State @ Rutgers
1:00 PM, BTN
PxP: Jason Horowitz
Color: LaPhonso Ellis

Michigan State @ Indiana
3:30 PM, CBS
PxP: Spero Dedes
Color: Jim Spanarkel

Illinois @ Iowa
6:00 PM, FS1
PxP: Brandon Gaudin
Color: Stephen Bardo

Maryland @ Penn State
6:30 PM, BTN
PxP: Kevin Kugler
Color: Jess Settles

FOOTBALL Three NU players go through drills, Braun addresses media at Pro Day


I was in the building for Northwestern's Pro Day this morning. It marked not just an opportunity for three NU players: QB Ben Bryant, WR Cam Johnson and LB Bryce Gallagher, to show their skills, it was also the first public address by Braun at Walter Athletics Center since bowl season. Here are our takeaways from the Northwestern workouts and Braun's remarks.
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Wildcats plan to send Buie out with a win on Senior Night


Chris Collins, Boo Buie and Ryan Langborg addressed the media ahead of the Minnesota game, Senior Night, tomorrow night. Here are our takeaways from what they had to say.
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BASKETBALL Wildcats plan to send Buie out with a win on Senior Night


Chris Collins, Boo Buie and Ryan Langborg addressed the media ahead of the Minnesota game, Senior Night, tomorrow night. Here are our takeaways from what they had to say.
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How we make the double bye

We beat MSU and Minnesota - We're in 100%
We beat one of MSU and Minnesota - We make it unless Wisconsin beats both Rutgers and Purdue, and Nebraska beats Michigan
We lose to both MSU and Minnesota - We only make it if Indiana beats Minnesota, Rutgers and Purdue beat Wisconsin, and Illinois beats Iowa

Given the likelihood of these events, we need to win one and have Purdue beat the Badgers. The best way to have Purdue be motivated to beat the Badgers is for Illinois to beat Purdue during the week, as that will mean Purdue won't have the 1-seed locked up.
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