A look at the offensive production of Big Ten guards

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	PAR	BPM	TS%	ORtg	Asst%	Made 2	Miss 2	2Pt%	Made 3	Miss 3	3Pt%
Pickett	7.1	9.5	58.0	118.1	37.5	161	135	54.4	31	47	39.7
Buie	4.8	5.8	53.5	106.5	29.9	102	110	48.1	43	97	30.7
Shannon	4.6	5.1	58.4	109.4	16.5	82	71	53.6	33	68	32.7
Lundy	4.6	5.9	60.0	115.4	4.3	56	55	50.5	71	108	39.7
Walker	4.5	6.3	56.1	113.1	19.7	116	123	48.5	47	60	43.9
Bufkin	4.3	6.4	57.7	112.6	17.3	88	82	51.8	31	50	38.3
J. Young	3.9	5.7	50.7	100.2	20.5	96	127	43.0	35	73	32.4
Funk	3.9	4.2	60.9	115.9	5.1	33	28	54.1	80	119	40.2
Hoggard	3.8	4.8	52.8	104.8	36.4	94	127	42.5	22	36	37.9
Tominaga	3.7	5.6	62.7	118.0	6.9	62	38	62.0	50	75	40.0
Perkins	3.5	3.5	53.1	106.5	14.4	98	112	46.7	18	36	33.3
Thornton	3.4	3.5	54.9	110.6	15.5	82	78	51.2	34	60	36.2
Spencer	2.5	6.3	51.4	102.9	17.7	43	65	39.8	36	62	36.7
Audige	1.8	2.8	45.0	89.6	15.8	69	116	37.3	47	103	31.3
Berry	1.5	1.6	48.0	97.5	6.4	35	46	43.2	36	88	29.0

I used only games against "Top 100" teams according to Bart Torvik's team rankings.
I filtered the Big Ten players to guys who...

a) played at least 65% of their available minutes
b) are 6'6" or less - trying to evaluate wings and guards
c) attempted at least 20 3-pointers
d) attemped at least 50 2 pointers

That reduced the field to 28 players. I listed essentially the top half, plus Audige and Berry.
Torvik calculates a very useful "Points above Replacement" (I called it PAR) which attempts to indicate the number of points per game a player contributes relative to an average player. That number includes offense and defense. I added a column for BPM (Box +/-). This is a widely used calculation, which also includes defense.

Ty Berry finished 28th of 28 in Points Above Replacement. Audige was 26th. Buie was #2.
Ty Berry finished 23rd of 28 in BPM. Audige was 18th. Buie was #7.
In Offensive Rating, Berry was 23rd. Audige was 28th. Buie was 14th.
In True Shooting Pct, Berry was 24th. Audige was 28th. Buie was 15th.

So I think it is fair to say that Chase (and Ty) were both notably below average on offense for Big Ten starters..

Trying to rate the guards, if we drop Lundy and Shannon, its Pickett, then Buie, Tyson Walker and Jahmir Young.
Walker in particular was phenomenal shooting the ball.

Kobe Bufkin, Keisei Tominaga, Cam Spencer and AJ Hoggard all played well. How Chase Audige stacks up against those players is a matter of opinion. Basically missed shots versus steals.

Torvik's site is great and is the source of this data.

T-Rank Player Stats - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[AdamOnFirst]

 

[IGNORE2]

This is nuts. Why some are so sensitive to honest assessments in form of discussion…reflection of society…

If NU had 13 first team all Americans - some of us would discuss why we aren’t in final four and whether voters needed a lesson on how 13 is greater than five. Those folks would be calling posters false fans and a variety of other names.

All hail all NU and drink your koolaid cuz FB season is coming quickly.

 

[IGNORE2]

Player	PAR	BPM	TS%	ORtg	Asst%	Made 2	Miss 2	2Pt%	Made 3	Miss 3	3Pt%
Pickett	7.1	9.5	58.0	118.1	37.5	161	135	54.4	31	47	39.7
Buie	4.8	5.8	53.5	106.5	29.9	102	110	48.1	43	97	30.7
Shannon	4.6	5.1	58.4	109.4	16.5	82	71	53.6	33	68	32.7
Lundy	4.6	5.9	60.0	115.4	4.3	56	55	50.5	71	108	39.7
Walker	4.5	6.3	56.1	113.1	19.7	116	123	48.5	47	60	43.9
Bufkin	4.3	6.4	57.7	112.6	17.3	88	82	51.8	31	50	38.3
J. Young	3.9	5.7	50.7	100.2	20.5	96	127	43.0	35	73	32.4
Funk	3.9	4.2	60.9	115.9	5.1	33	28	54.1	80	119	40.2
Hoggard	3.8	4.8	52.8	104.8	36.4	94	127	42.5	22	36	37.9
Tominaga	3.7	5.6	62.7	118.0	6.9	62	38	62.0	50	75	40.0
Perkins	3.5	3.5	53.1	106.5	14.4	98	112	46.7	18	36	33.3
Thornton	3.4	3.5	54.9	110.6	15.5	82	78	51.2	34	60	36.2
Spencer	2.5	6.3	51.4	102.9	17.7	43	65	39.8	36	62	36.7
Audige	1.8	2.8	45.0	89.6	15.8	69	116	37.3	47	103	31.3
Berry	1.5	1.6	48.0	97.5	6.4	35	46	43.2	36	88	29.0

I used only games against "Top 100" teams according to Bart Torvik's team rankings.
I filtered the Big Ten players to guys who...

a) played at least 65% of their available minutes
b) are 6'6" or less - trying to evaluate wings and guards
c) attempted at least 20 3-pointers
d) attemped at least 50 2 pointers

That reduced the field to 28 players. I listed essentially the top half, plus Audige and Berry.
Torvik calculates a very useful "Points above Replacement" (I called it PAR) which attempts to indicate the number of points per game a player contributes relative to an average player. That number includes offense and defense. I added a column for BPM (Box +/-). This is a widely used calculation, which also includes defense.

Ty Berry finished 28th of 28 in Points Above Replacement. Audige was 26th. Buie was #2.
Ty Berry finished 23rd of 28 in BPM. Audige was 18th. Buie was #7.
In Offensive Rating, Berry was 23rd. Audige was 28th. Buie was 14th.
In True Shooting Pct, Berry was 24th. Audige was 28th. Buie was 15th.

So I think it is fair to say that Chase (and Ty) were both notably below average on offense for Big Ten starters..

Trying to rate the guards, if we drop Lundy and Shannon, its Pickett, then Buie, Tyson Walker and Jahmir Young.
Walker in particular was phenomenal shooting the ball.

Kobe Bufkin, Keisei Tominaga, Cam Spencer and AJ Hoggard all played well. How Chase Audige stacks up against those players is a matter of opinion. Basically missed shots versus steals.

Torvik's site is great and is the source of this data.

T-Rank Player Stats - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Looking at this - raising BB to start as a 3 seems like a big improve. Assuming the guys don’t return, also makes me think that a Berry for Chase doesn’t have to mean doom if we get a stellar PG. BB offers a lot more at the three on D for Berry gives up in Chase’s spot as Berry was above average on D, I thought.

Throw Mart in for Beran - I’ll call it a wash. Older, bigger and more developed MN. We desperately need a very, very good PG and a couple more transfers as we are sitting at 8 recruited scholarship players.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

This is nuts. Why some are so sensitive to honest assessments in form of discussion…reflection of society…

If NU had 13 first team all Americans - some of us would discuss why we aren’t in final four and whether voters needed a lesson on how 13 is greater than five. Those folks would be calling posters false fans and a variety of other names.

All hail all NU and drink your koolaid cuz FB season is coming quickly.

HOF post Bob, glad to see you are back on your game.

 

[CappyNU]

It's too late tonight for me to go into details, but if you look at the numbers pre- and post-covid break prior to the tourney, it's very interesting to see the difference between the players' performances.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

It's too late tonight for me to go into details, but if you look at the numbers pre- and post-covid break prior to the tourney, it's very interesting to see the difference between the players' performances.

I agree with you that the Covid break seems like a turning point of sorts, but it also roughly coincides with Roper getting hurt, which forced lineup changes.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Looking at this - raising BB to start as a 3 seems like a big improve. Assuming the guys don’t return, also makes me think that a Berry for Chase doesn’t have to mean doom if we get a stellar PG. BB offers a lot more at the three on D for Berry gives up in Chase’s spot as Berry was above average on D, I thought.

Throw Mart in for Beran - I’ll call it a wash. Older, bigger and more developed MN. We desperately need a very, very good PG and a couple more transfers as we are sitting at 8 recruited scholarship players.

If Buie returns, that will keep things moving in the right direction. Berry is a good defender, just overlooked. Defense is really a team effort. Just like hockey. One great defender can't keep the other team fromscoring. You need a solid group.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

@PurpleWhiteBoy, Do these numbers make you re-think your position that Young should have been first team over Buie?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

@PurpleWhiteBoy, Do these numbers make you re-think your position that Young should have been first team over Buie?

Yes! Young was not as effective as Buie on the offensive end. I can't deny the stats. Young, like a lot of players, including Audige, was more effective against weaker teams. Filtering based on competition bears that out.

However, Young is a great leaper and that shows up in his rebounding and defense, so when we're talking about First Team Big Ten, I'd look at it this way. Pickett A+, Buie A, Walker A, Young A.

Clearly the 4 best guards in the league, take your pick who joins Pickett on the First Team.

 

[GatoLouco]

My instinct, based just on my own two eyes, was that Buie should have been undisputed first team.

If there was an award for best back court it should have been split by NU and PSU

Chase should not have been on any all team. There is an adjustment that I think it's fair to make for intangibles. If one is a part of a winning team, that should be factored it. For sure. But his offensive game was borderline horrendous for a good 1/2 of conference games.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

My instinct, based just on my own two eyes, was that Buie should have been undisputed first team.

If there was an award for best back court it should have been split by NU and PSU

Chase should not have been on any all team. There is an adjustment that I think it's fair to make for intangibles. If one is a part of a winning team, that should be factored it. For sure. But his offensive game was borderline horrendous for a good 1/2 of conference games.

Well you're going past me on Audige. Buie was very good, but Tyson Walker was phenomenal on offense. Sparty could argue with NU and PSU about backcourts - Hoggard and Walker are quite the combo.

Personally I think Bufkin and Tominaga would probably be my 3rd teamers (not sure why we need a 3rd team).

Here's a fun little stat that I noticed while typing those numbers in the table...

Walker made 47 threes and missed 60. Audige also made 47 threes. He missed 103.

 

[CappyNU]

So, Roper got hurt in the first game after the Covid break ended. Looking at the data before and after the injury gives the following splits against top 100 teams (with some additional players and slightly expanded eligibility criteria):

Pre 1/24:

Player	PAR	BPM	TS%	ORtg	Asst%	Made 2	Miss 2	2Pt%	Made 3	Miss 3	3Pt%
Pickett	7.0​	10.5​	58.4​	118.3​	40.0​	73​	57​	56.2%​	11​	20​	35.5%​
Shannon	5.6​	7.6​	58.3​	114.9​	19.9​	50​	41​	54.9%​	20​	39​	33.9%​
Sensabaugh	4.8​	10.0​	62.3​	114.8​	7.2​	54​	49​	52.4%​	27​	29​	48.2%​
Walker	4.2​	7.4​	55.9​	109.6​	18.2​	55​	62​	47.0%​	23​	27​	46.0%​
Lundy	4.1​	5.8​	60.7​	114.5​	4.6​	26​	25​	51.0%​	25​	37​	40.3%​
Hoggard	3.8​	5.4​	52.2​	103.4​	36.8​	46​	62​	42.6%​	12​	21​	36.4%​
Funk	3.6​	4.0​	59.1​	113.4​	5.1​	16​	16​	50.0%​	34​	50​	40.5%​
Sueing	3.5​	2.5​	50.6​	103.2​	13.9​	57​	57​	50.0%​	9​	24​	27.3%​
J. Young	3.4​	6.1​	47.8​	96.2​	21.0​	50​	65​	43.5%​	15​	42​	26.3%​
Bufkin	3.3​	4.4​	54.8​	110.1​	17.3​	35​	34​	50.7%​	10​	23​	30.3%​
Audige	3.2​	7.7​	49.3​	99.7​	18.3​	27​	47​	36.5%​	23​	39​	37.1%​
Essegian	2.9​	6.8​	59.6​	111.2​	7.7​	18​	25​	41.9%​	28​	35​	44.4%​
Spencer	2.7​	7.5​	50.0​	104.9​	25.0​	17​	34​	33.3%​	21​	34​	38.2%​
Buie	2.5​	-0.5​	46.4​	91.7​	28.2​	37​	43​	46.3%​	11​	46​	19.3%​
Hood-Schifino	2.5​	1.0​	51.5​	96.6​	23.5​	30​	45​	40.0%​	16​	17​	48.5%​
Hepburn	2.5​	5.3​	49.1​	97.4​	23.3​	31​	52​	37.3%​	22​	32​	40.7%​
Berry	2.4​	5.1​	53.9​	105.6​	6.3​	15​	19​	44.1%​	15​	31​	32.6%​
Tominaga	2.3​	4.5​	55.8​	111.1​	8.8​	24​	21​	53.3%​	18​	35​	34.0%​
Perkins	2.0​	0.8​	46.0​	94.6​	15.8​	44​	64​	40.7%​	7​	20​	25.9%​
Thornton	2.0​	2.2​	51.9​	101.2​	15.4​	24​	35​	40.7%​	15​	23​	39.5%​
Barnhizer	1.5​	3.8​	49.3​	103.3​	12.9​	12​	16​	42.9%​	5​	14​	26.3%​

Here, we see that Audige is roughly average within the conference and in fact is the best offensive guard we have, whereas Buie was pretty awful and Barnhizer had no useful outside shot.

 

[CappyNU]

Now, post 1/24 through B1G tourney, same players:

Player	PAR	BPM	TS%	ORtg	Asst%	Made 2	Miss 2	2Pt%	Made 3	Miss 3	3Pt%
Pickett	7.6​	10.2​	60.3​	122.1​	38.1​	77​	61​	55.8%​	19​	25​	43.2%​
Buie	6.0​	9.6​	57.6​	114.0​	31.3​	55​	57​	49.1%​	29​	47​	38.2%​
Tominaga	5.5​	6.7​	68.0​	106.8​	5.0​	38​	17​	69.1%​	32​	40​	44.4%​
Perkins	5.5​	7.0​	62.5​	120.8​	13.6​	50​	41​	54.9%​	11​	15​	42.3%​
J. Young	5.3​	7.2​	54.5​	109.9​	22.1​	41​	53​	43.6%​	19​	28​	40.4%​
Bufkin	5.2​	8.1​	59.8​	114.2​	17.2​	53​	48​	52.5%​	21​	27​	43.8%​
Lundy	5.1​	6.6​	60.6​	116.6​	4.8​	27​	27​	50.0%​	42​	62​	40.4%​
Walker	4.6​	5.4​	57.0​	116.1​	20.9​	46​	46​	50.0%​	20​	25​	44.4%​
Thornton	4.5​	4.6​	56.7​	117.0​	15.6​	58​	43​	57.4%​	19​	37​	33.9%​
Hoggard	3.6​	4.4​	51.5​	106.0​	37.2​	34​	50​	40.5%​	8​	14​	36.4%​
Sensabaugh	3.5​	3.6​	53.8​	101.8​	12.6​	54​	50​	51.9%​	18​	40​	31.0%​
Shannon	3.4​	1.6​	58.0​	102.3​	13.2​	27​	28​	49.1%​	13​	26​	33.3%​
Essegian	3.3​	4.0​	53.0​	105.4​	5.1​	33​	30​	52.4%​	8​	15​	34.8%​
Barnhizer	3.2​	4.7​	56.9​	113.8​	7.8​	33​	35​	48.5%​	16​	24​	40.0%​
Funk	3.0​	2.4​	59.9​	110.4​	4.3​	14​	10​	58.3%​	36​	59​	37.9%​
Sueing	2.8​	1.9​	49.5​	101.2​	9.2​	45​	62​	42.1%​	14​	30​	31.8%​
Hood-Schifino	2.5​	-0.4​	49.1​	93.3​	16.1​	66​	78​	45.8%​	12​	30​	28.6%​
Spencer	2.5​	5.2​	52.7​	101.2​	10.3​	26​	31​	45.6%​	15​	28​	34.9%​
Hepburn	1.5​	1.5​	45.2​	91.1​	15.9​	27​	49​	35.5%​	21​	38​	35.6%​
Berry	0.7​	-0.5​	42.9​	89.7​	7.5​	18​	24​	42.9%​	17​	51​	25.0%​
Audige	0.1​	-1.7​	39.7​	78.9​	14.2​	36​	62​	36.7%​	19​	53​	26.4%​

Man, is Pickett an impressive player. But look at the meteoric rise of Buie and huge improvement from Barnhizer coinciding with the plummeting of Audige and Berry.

So, pre Roper injury:
Ty Berry was 21st of 38 in Points Above Replacement. Audige was 14th. Buie was 19th, Barnhizer 27th.
Ty Berry was 14th of 38 in BPM. Audige was 4th. Buie was 34th, Barnhizer was 21st.
In Offensive Rating, Berry was 14th. Audige was 21st. Buie was 32nd, Barnhizer was 17th.
In True Shooting Pct, Berry was 13th. Audige was 24th. Buie was 31st, Barnhizer was 23rd.

Post-Roper injury:
Ty Berry was 34th of 38 in Points Above Replacement. Audige was 37th. Buie was 2nd, Barnhizer 17th.
Ty Berry was 33rd of 38 in BPM. Audige was 35th. Buie was 2nd, Barnhizer was 13th.
In Offensive Rating, Berry was 34th. Audige was 37th. Buie was 11th, Barnhizer was 12th.
In True Shooting Pct, Berry was 34th. Audige was 37th. Buie was 12th, Barnhizer was 14th.

Roper was averaging roughly 16mpg prior to his injury; afterwards, Barnhizer went from 21 to 28mpg, Berry from 26 to 29mpg, and Buie and Audige from 34 to 35 mpg. So I don't know that Roper's injury was so disruptive to cause Audige and Berry to both crater offensively and suffer defensively a bit as well. Was it the Covid schedule grind that wore them down while others were able to handle it better? The two tourney games we played were Chase's best since the covid break, was it due to having just one game in 11 days leading up to the Boise game? Don't think we'll ever know the answers, but it's just striking the difference between before and after the break/injury for our guards/wings.

 

[FitzFan]

Was it the Covid schedule grind that wore them down while others were able to handle it better? The two tourney games we played were Chase's best since the covid break, was it due to having just one game in 11 days leading up to the Boise game? Don't think we'll ever know the answers, but it's just striking the difference between before and after the break/injury for our guards/wings.

I think I recall hearing that Chase tested positive for COVID. If so, it's possible he suffered from long COVID symptoms. Those symptoms could affect his endurance and recovery, among other things.