Iowa: a must-win

[freewillie07]

I hate throwing around that term, especially just a handful of games into conference play, but I feel like that’s the case. NU needs to win in Evanston, period, if it wants a shot at postseason play.

Iowa is the closest team to NU in terms of KenPom — the Cats are #49, the Hawkeyes #43. There are eight Big Ten teams in the Top 30 and six in the Top 20.

There are eight wins for the taking for NU among the following group of teams: Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers. So far the Cats are 1-0. The recipe for success this year will be managing to win seven of these games, split the games at Welsh-Ryan against Indiana/Wisconsin/Ohio State/Purdue, and spring an upset or two on the road.

It feels like there’s simultaneously a lot of season left and also little room for error. The team should have a bit of confidence that they finally got a close game to go their way. Let’s hope it translates into a great showing tonight.

Go Cats

 

[NJCat]

I hate throwing around that term, especially just a handful of games into conference play, but I feel like that’s the case. NU needs to win in Evanston, period, if it wants a shot at postseason play.

Iowa is the closest team to NU in terms of KenPom — the Cats are #49, the Hawkeyes #43. There are eight Big Ten teams in the Top 30 and six in the Top 20.

There are eight wins for the taking for NU among the following group of teams: Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers. So far the Cats are 1-0. The recipe for success this year will be managing to win seven of these games, split the games at Welsh-Ryan against Indiana/Wisconsin/Ohio State/Purdue, and spring an upset or two on the road.

It feels like there’s simultaneously a lot of season left and also little room for error. The team should have a bit of confidence that they finally got a close game to go their way. Let’s hope it translates into a great showing tonight.

Go Cats

I agree this is a must-win game. Cats need to win all the games they are favored in, and get a couple of upsets to have any shot at the post-season (even NIT). A tall order in a really good B1G conference this year.

 

[JournCat]

I worry about teams that can get us into a shootout like Michigan State did. Iowa plays fast and put up 93 points on Sunday.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I hate throwing around that term, especially just a handful of games into conference play, but I feel like that’s the case. NU needs to win in Evanston, period, if it wants a shot at postseason play.

Iowa is the closest team to NU in terms of KenPom — the Cats are #49, the Hawkeyes #43. There are eight Big Ten teams in the Top 30 and six in the Top 20.

There are eight wins for the taking for NU among the following group of teams: Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers. So far the Cats are 1-0. The recipe for success this year will be managing to win seven of these games, split the games at Welsh-Ryan against Indiana/Wisconsin/Ohio State/Purdue, and spring an upset or two on the road.

It feels like there’s simultaneously a lot of season left and also little room for error. The team should have a bit of confidence that they finally got a close game to go their way. Let’s hope it translates into a great showing tonight.

Go Cats

FYI, Iowa fans see the game the same way from the Iowa perspective. Very similar teams in terms of performance as you pointed out in the KenPom rankings. Big 10 is just so tough that games like tonight become super important for the winner (and loser). I do see Illinois and Rutgers as worse than the rest of the teams in your basket of 8 winnable games for Northwestern, but totally understand the point you are making.

Should be a close competitive game if nothing else tonight. Teams are opposites of each other. Iowa has a very good offense but has trouble guarding people. Wildcats can guard but have trouble scoring.

 

[freewillie07]

FYI, Iowa fans see the game the same way from the Iowa perspective. Very similar teams in terms of performance as you pointed out in the KenPom rankings. Big 10 is just so tough that games like tonight become super important for the winner (and loser). I do see Illinois and Rutgers as worse than the rest of the teams in your basket of 8 winnable games for Northwestern, but totally understand the point you are making.

Should be a close competitive game if nothing else tonight. Teams are opposites of each other. Iowa has a very good offense but has trouble guarding people. Wildcats can guard but have trouble scoring.

Thanks for the insight. Should be a good game. I see the line is NU -3, so, yeah, an even matchup on a neutral court.

FWIW, was by no means equating Iowa to Rutgers or Illinois in terms of talent. They are in my “Tier 4” by themselves right now. NU needs to pretty much win out against Tier 3 and Tier 4, though, to your point, all the others are saying the same thing.

Tier 1:
Michigan State, Michigan

Tier 2:
Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue

Tier 3:
Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State

Tier 4:
Illinois, Rutgers

 

[IdahoAlum]

And NU beat Illinois by two -- at home. VERY little room for error.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

Yep, definitely a must win in my book. Iowa as mentioned can put up some points, but there has been a clear difference in their performance in true road games. They played well on some neutral floors earlier this year (beating Oregon, UConn, and Northern Iowa), but have struggled in their only two road tests (crazy they have only played two road games to this point). Granted, those were at MSU and Purdue, but both games were over by halftime.

Not like Welsh Ryan is the biggest home court advantage, and I'm sure there will be a lot of Iowa fans in the stands as always, but I feel much better about this game being at home than I would in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have been very tough on their home floor. Got to get this one tonight.

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

I hate throwing around that term, especially just a handful of games into conference play, but I feel like that’s the case. NU needs to win in Evanston, period, if it wants a shot at postseason play.

Iowa is the closest team to NU in terms of KenPom — the Cats are #49, the Hawkeyes #43. There are eight Big Ten teams in the Top 30 and six in the Top 20.

There are eight wins for the taking for NU among the following group of teams: Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers. So far the Cats are 1-0. The recipe for success this year will be managing to win seven of these games, split the games at Welsh-Ryan against Indiana/Wisconsin/Ohio State/Purdue, and spring an upset or two on the road.

It feels like there’s simultaneously a lot of season left and also little room for error. The team should have a bit of confidence that they finally got a close game to go their way. Let’s hope it translates into a great showing tonight.

Go Cats

We really have to beat Iowa.

 

[freewillie07]

Well, shoot.

 

[Catreporter]

We are outmanned underneath against Big Ten teams. Even Rutgers has a better presence in the paint than we do. Pardon is a tremendous worker but he is undersized. We even got outrebounded by Illinois. And, we can't win if Vic Law shoots like he did tonight and the other teams know it. I'm just hoping we can win five or six BIG games. No gimmes for us the rest of the year when we couldn't beat Iowa at home with their leading scorer out.

 

[mikewebb68]

Way too early in conference play for must-wins.

 

[Akeehn0912]

Way too early in conference play for must-wins.

When the other team is missing their best player and you’re 1-3 in the BIG and at home... that’s close. A poster above is right. With how good the league is this year, I’d be happy if they find a way to win 6 conference games.

 

[freewillie07]

Way too early in conference play for must-wins.

I still believe in this team... but you can’t lose to a 1-3 team at home when they’re missing their best player. You just can’t. Like against Illinois, you have to find a way to win.

Michigan and @Indiana can be labeled “good losses.” This one, on the other hand...

But please let us know when you think a game is a must-win?

 

[Fitz51]

Way too early in conference play for must-wins.

I’ll wait for that string of 6-7 victories we’ll need to balance this stuff out.

 

[mikewebb68]

I’ll wait for that string of 6-7 victories we’ll need to balance this stuff out.

And we are certainly capable of that. Our freshman are improving rapidly game-to-game (we had a ton of bench points tonight, and Greer who wasn't even playing in December, has now become a strong rotational piece). I believe we will figure it out.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

And we are certainly capable of that. Our freshman are improving rapidly game-to-game (we had a ton of bench points tonight, and Greer who wasn't even playing in December, has now become a strong rotational piece). I believe we will figure it out.

We will upset a few teams, but a 500 Big season that many of us thought was reasonable is a pipe dream.

 

[Katatonic]

I'm starting to have my doubts if this team will even make the NIT.

And we are certainly capable of that. Our freshman are improving rapidly game-to-game (we had a ton of bench points tonight, and Greer who wasn't even playing in December, has now become a strong rotational piece). I believe we will figure it out.

Wouldn't exactly say that - there has been some improvement (from what I have seen thus far, mostly from Greer).

As for bench points, the bulk of them (13) came from Gaines.

Nance - 5
Greer - 2
Kopp - 3 (throwing in a starter)

That's not going to cut it when this team needs an impact frosh (even if from the bench).

As I had stated before, regardless of recruiting rankings, don't expect all or even the majority of incoming frosh to be impact players, but it's imperative that at least 1 is - esp. w/ all the previous misses (in recruiting), injuries and transfers.

Where would this team be if Law hadn't gotten injured and missed his soph season and had graduated w/ the rest of his recruiting class?

And where would this team be w/o Taylor and Turner (as much as they haven't lived up to the billing)?

Maybe one could attribute Taylor's significant drop in efficiency to moving up to the B1G from the MVC, but still, shouldn't be that much of a drop as he no longer has the burden of being the 1st (or even 2nd) option.

There's no such rationale for Turner who had put up better shooting nos. in the ACC and has had a 1.5 years to get acclimated to CC's system and improve his game.

 

[go cats go]

Maybe one could attribute Taylor's significant drop in efficiency to moving up to the B1G from the MVC, but still, shouldn't be that much of a drop as he no longer has the burden of being the 1st (or even 2nd) option.

Dating back to the Columbia game on December 30, Ryan Taylor is 13-26 (.500) beyond the arc. The team has been doing a better job of driving and kicking--or skip passing--to him for open looks. We need more of this.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I'm starting to have my doubts if this team will even make the NIT.



Wouldn't exactly say that - there has been some improvement (from what I have seen thus far, mostly from Greer).

As for bench points, the bulk of them (13) came from Gaines.

Nance - 5
Greer - 2
Kopp - 3 (throwing in a starter)

That's not going to cut it when this team needs an impact frosh (even if from the bench).

As I had stated before, regardless of recruiting rankings, don't expect all or even the majority of incoming frosh to be impact players, but it's imperative that at least 1 is - esp. w/ all the previous misses (in recruiting), injuries and transfers.

Where would this team be if Law hadn't gotten injured and missed his soph season and had graduated w/ the rest of his recruiting class?

And where would this team be w/o Taylor and Turner (as much as they haven't lived up to the billing)?

Maybe one could attribute Taylor's significant drop in efficiency to moving up to the B1G from the MVC, but still, shouldn't be that much of a drop as he no longer has the burden of being the 1st (or even 2nd) option.

There's no such rationale for Turner who had put up better shooting nos. in the ACC and has had a 1.5 years to get acclimated to CC's system and improve his game.

It’s hard for the Freshman to score when they are glued to the bench.

 

[Hans81]

Thanks for the insight. Should be a good game. I see the line is NU -3, so, yeah, an even matchup on a neutral court.

FWIW, was by no means equating Iowa to Rutgers or Illinois in terms of talent. They are in my “Tier 4” by themselves right now. NU needs to pretty much win out against Tier 3 and Tier 4, though, to your point, all the others are saying the same thing.

Tier 1:
Michigan State, Michigan

Tier 2:
Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue

Tier 3:
Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State

Tier 4:
Illinois, Rutgers

I think Iowa can move up into your Tier 2 and move O$U and possibly Purdue down a notch by end of season.