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+/- for the Minimization of Minnesota

PlayerMinutesNU PtsMN PtsRaw +/-Player +/-Net +/-Box Pts
Martinelli346353+10+4.37+6.378.90
Clayton214323+20-1.70+2.304.10
Windham244246-4+2.68+1.886.50
Berry326249+13-0.80+1.806.00
Hunger173231+1+0.65+0.853.70
Nicholson203728+9-1.30+0.503.00
Mullins376358+5-1.23-0.235.50
Ciaravino91815+3-0.90-0.301.55
Fitzmorris71512+3-1.77-1.170.75

Interesting game. Nick Martinelli takes home the "star of the game" honors, but he received sold support from Clayton, Windham, Berry and nearly everyone on the team. Nobody played poorly.
Coach Collins really mixed things up, removing Luke Hunger from the isolation ward and putting him on the court for a surprising 17 minutes. He even tried Hunger with Nicholson for the first time ever (I think) when Martinelli had to sit with fouls in the first half. Martinelli may have benefitted from the (slightly) reduced minutes, as he played his best game in awhile.

Along those lines, Jordan Clayton played his best game as a Wildcat. The +20 speaks for itself - and while the former redshirt wasn't exactly carrying the team, he clearly has picked it up on the defensive end and played more efficiently on the offensive end. Nicholson/Martinelli/Mullins/Berry/Clayton opened the first half with a 10-0 run and opened the 2nd half with a 10-4 run. Clayton connected on 2 of 3 from outside the arc and recorded 3 assists to 1 turnover. He has made significant progress since being thrown into the fire after the Leach injury.

KJ Windham and Ty Berry both played well, again.
Berry is 30 of 59 from the field and 14 of 35 from outside the arc since Leach went down.
Windham had 7 assists against 3 turnovers, but offset those with 3 steals. One of KJ's turnovers occurred when he tracked down a loose ball and was falling out of bounds under our basket, but the rest of the team ran up the court, leaving him to throw it up for grabs. Another occurred when Martinelli stopped mid-cut and Windham threw the ball where Martinelli had been going. All in all, Windham looked very composed running the offense. The difference between Windham and Clayton is in how they operate in the paint. Clayton is making progress, but Windham looks pretty darned good - on both ends of the floor.

I should note that Windham was -4 for the game. We gave up a lot of points when he was playing. But his player adjust was +2.68, reflecting his strong individual play.
Windham was teamed with Hunger for nearly all 17 of Luke's minutes.

Justin Mullins had a solid game, playing 37 minutes, making 4 of 6 from the field.

It felt like Minnesota did us a favor by going with a smaller lineup when Parker Fox and Frank Mitchell were a combined 7 of 8. When the Gophers went small with 8:47 to go, putting both forwards on the bench, the Cats were ahead 59-45. Collins immediately subbed in Luke Hunger and the teams played small until there was about a minute to go. We played Hunger/Martinelli/Mullins/Windham/Clayton for 3 of those minutes, before Berry replaced Clayton (which made more sense to me). Collins definitely got the better of Ben Johnson in the 2nd half.

The two most recent games have been Northwestern's best performances in Big Ten play. That says a lot. Too much to go into in a +/- discussion. But suffice it to say that the recent losses to Nebraska and Washington loom very large as likely NCAA bubble bursters... oh what might have been... and there is now evidence to suggest that NU is playing better than it has all year... We'll see if its an illusion on Friday against Iowa.

Crazy College hoops

I just watched Ohio State score 52 points in the first half at USC, shooting over 70 percent and hitting their first eight threes. The same team that scored 49 points total at home against the Cats. College basketball is so crazy and unpredictable this year. That MSU buzzer beater came after they had blown a nine point lead in the final couple minutes .

Big Ten TV Schedule: Week Seventeen (2/24-3/2)

He used to do them all the time and then abruptly stopped right around the time he left the athletic department, in what was apparently not an amicable parting. After that he did occasional road games but didn't do a game in Evanston until last year. I don't know for a fact that one had to do with the other so I won't speculate further.

Also, in general, I believe he lives in South Dakota and so he does most of his games from nearby schools like Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska. A lot of BTN assignments are done for convenience and it's really only the top broadcast crews that regularly travel across the country for games.
Met him at O’Hare once flying to Lincoln. Dude was a character. Had on a Bill Walton esque Hawaiian shirt.
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Next 12 out?

Appreciate the breakdown from a fellow kenpom subscriber. Last night it sure felt like the refs were making up for a season of bad calls (the debt is still there, mind you).

I look at the FTA/FGA - and while it's considered the weakest of the 4 Factors, (I think Oliver rates it around 15%), the 'Cats are 17th offensively, and dead last defensively. In short, we don't get to the line as much as the average B1G team, and we sure put our opponents on the line at a higher rate than the average B1G team.

This year, especially with Barnhizer - he and Martinelli were mid-range and at the rim type scorers. Collins was pleading for this in post-game pressers - why haven't his wings gotten to the line? Nicholson's best OReb% year has anchored perhaps the best OReb% team in the Collins era (32.6/3rd in B1G - which is better than Pardon-era '20 when the 'Cats grabbed 30%/3rd). There should be more calls earned from stickbacks attempts. Defensively, yes, with younger players getting more minutes, they are susceptible to fouling more given they're trying to adapt to the faster pace of play and losing bad habits. However, that Penn State road game where the Nits marched to the line 45 times (!) - c'mon, right?

All is to say - that specific factor for us has been quite significant - perhaps a 2-3 possession swing per game, and given the close losses we've endured, perhaps that's what accounts for the "bad luck" on that stat.
For what it's worth, the "Luck" number is just the sum total of the expected wins based on point differential in each game, compared to actual wins. Fewer FTs than our opponents is something that has hurt us and likely contributed to us underperforming our potential wins in a general sense. But the "Luck" thing is basically saying that we've lost more close games than we've won. More FTs could have helped that but I think it would be more of an indirect relationship than a direct one.
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Big Matt and next year's defense

We'd all love to think so, but Nicholson has been criticized for so long, people just forget how much he was criticized.
Yes there were a few of us who realized he was going to be a decent player before (or by) November of 2022, but it has taken forever for many others

Here's an example from a month ago...


and another from 4 weeks ago


and this from Novermber 2024



There are hundreds of comments along those lines. Maybe even a thousand.

This one assesses the commentary as of Feb 2024...
PWB - you are correct that I was critical of Matt there. He has many situations where he gets lost in the defense, just like last night. But he also has many more very valuable times. Though I have also stated my opinion that he is not “elite” because he does not have the ability to regularly block shots in 1:1 matchups even against smaller players.

And not sure if you got my sarcasm in the second sentence…
And the inevitable "receipts" post is why I try to stay away from ripping on players. I get that these can be venting threads, but these guys are doing their best.
Yah - some of those posts look bad in hindsight. Kind of like doing the same thing to the coaches.
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Martinelli's masterpiece leads NU over Minnesota, 75-63

Not to take anything away from Mart, dude is freaking amazing and a delight to watch, but, just like with OSU, did MN even have a plan for him?

We had Mart/Barn/Leach available and Purdue had a very clear plan for two of them. I'm not sure I saw any adjustments from OSU or MN. Terrible coaching IMO.
I saw Garcia on him almost exclusively. I guess they thought he could handle Mart himself - not!

Martinelli's masterpiece leads NU over Minnesota, 75-63

In the Nebraska game, NU was 5 of 17 from the 3 point arc in the first half.
We got a ton of offensive rebounds off those misses.
We were 9 of 21 inside the arc.

In the 2nd half, we were 2 of 3 from outside the arc.
Berry made his first two attempts of the 2nd half, but missed at the 14:31 mark and NU never attempted another 3 pointer.

Either Nebraska shut us down on the perimeter OR we decided to try to pound the ball inside.
We were 10 of 31 inside the arc in the 2nd half.
In the second half, you could see the guy chasing Berry was often literally holding onto Berry's elbow. I think the refs called one foul on that when they both hit the deck on a moving pick that wasn't called.
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