Meh.... when one of your supposed returning senior leaders transfers to play for an intra-conference foe, I think the board is allowed a day or two of sour grapes. It will pass.... until we see him again next winter.
Kopp to Indiana
- Thread starter 7th Cir. Cat
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Good luck to Kopp but he wasn't all that good or productive. In with the new guys.
He led the team in scoring in 2019 and was second (by a point) in 2020. He wasn't great by any means, but let's not pretend he wasn't an important player for us.
He clearly won’t be the focal point of defenses that play Indiana. He won’t even be the best transfer to Indiana.
It's really starting to feel like no one is allowed to have a negative opinion on anything on this site anymore. Whatever criticism gets thrown around on this site is piddling compared to what Kopp will hear the first time he goes 1-6 in a loss at IU.
This transfer is a noteworthy development. As far as I can tell, there's never been an Big Ten intraconference transfer of a men's basketball player who either hadn't graduated or didn't have to sit a year. The last two intraconference transfers at all (I think?) were role players, Spike Albrecht and Max Bielfeldt. Jarrod Uthoff went from Wisconsin to Iowa before ever appearing in a game for the Badgers, and I remember people absolutely flipping out over it.
15-20 years prior, the last starters to do it were Luke Recker, who had that weird dalliance with Arizona, Penn State's Sharif Chambliss, and our very own Ben Johnson. They all had to sit a year and lose that year of eligibility.
Joey Brunk and Kopp both did it this week.
It's a different era in college basketball. At least Brunk had a coaching change to blame.
It was equally important in the losses as he was in the wins. Of course, it seems like he sees it differently.
Quick!! Somebody hold me back before I flip PPD's table!
Kopp's clear message about "style of play" is revealing.
Practically nobody on here liked our stale offense last year.
"Four guys standing around the 3 point line with a lone post player sometimes coming out and setting picks" is boring, ineffective and easily defended.
Had Collins just gone with Nance and Young in the game TOGETHER, Kopp and the team would have had much better success.
He also probably realized that when he was out there with Beran and Nance we got smoked game after game.
But the coach kept doing it.
Practically nobody on here liked our stale offense last year.
"Four guys standing around the 3 point line with a lone post player sometimes coming out and setting picks" is boring, ineffective and easily defended.
Had Collins just gone with Nance and Young in the game TOGETHER, Kopp and the team would have had much better success.
He also probably realized that when he was out there with Beran and Nance we got smoked game after game.
But the coach kept doing it.
He led the team in minutes last year so some of that was just by volume/opportunity. Given all the minutes 11/3 doesn’t seem that hard to replace.
Collins obviously thought Miller Kopp was our best player, based on minutes. Of course, that was never the case...
But if you want to say that Chris Collins knows what he is doing, then Kopp was our most essential player and is a big loss.
On the other hand, if you want to say Chris Collins has no idea what he's doing, then you understand why Kopp left.
Those are our choices - We lost our best player or the coach is clueless.
I suppose there's also the middle ground... not sure what that would be!
He is a good fit with indiana. Wish he would have stayed. Nice looking shot but as a 3rd option with more open looks vs creating off dribble. The opportunity he leaves behind is leadership. Had he fought through the sr year, he would have been a favorite. Any way would rather have Nance as I thought he was the more likely transfer. Young, Nance and Beran can be a good core. New talent bring some quickness as well.
Per CBB Reference, Beran's ORating in 2020-21 was 109.3. His DRating was 103.7. These are estimates of points scored (O) and allowed (D) per 100 possessions.
Kopp's ORating was 99.5. His DRating was 104.2.
CBB Reference also has a Win Shares stat, which measures the number of wins a player contributed when combining his offensive and defensive production. This is partly a measure of the stats above as well as minutes played. In 20 minutes per game, Beran's WS was 1.2. In 31 minutes per game, Kopp's WS was 1.5.
Kopp's eFG%, a field goal percentage that adjusts for the additive value of made 3-pointers, was 47.1%. Beran's was 53.7%. Beran and Kopp had more or less equal rates of assists and rebounds per game; Beran had .6 turnovers per game, versus Kopp's 1.5.
Kopp used up more than double the number of possessions Beran did to produce these numbers.
Beran is also a year younger, for what it's worth. His 40% 3-pt FG from his freshman year was better than anything Kopp posted in any of his three seasons. So was Beran's 44% FG% this year and his 55% 2-pt FG% this year. Kopp is a significantly better free thrower, though.
Beran has a long way to go, but I don't think he's reached his upside yet.
I don't think comparing Beran to Kopp makes a case for being a part of the core that can take us to the promised land. Or comparing any player to Kopp for that matter. The core of our tourney team was BMac/Law/Lindsey. Pardon was upcoming.
If you are looking for players to step up, play significant minutes, produce day in and out... you should be looking at Nance/Young/Audige/Buie as candidates to emerge as the ones we rely on for W's.
Beran can contribute, can improve, I don't dislike the kid. But I'd be shocked if he came back from the summer as a legit every night B1G quality player.
All I know is we didn’t win with him. He couldn’t be viewed as a part of the solution in my opinion.
Do you think NU takes a big drop with Beran getting some of Kopps minutes?
I don’t feel NU does. Pretty sure we would be better defensively and actually grab a few more rebounds. We aren’t replacing Vic Law.
Even if you think Beran can replace him adequately, it still hurts our competitive depth.
It's a negative for NU. There is no other way to spin it. The degree to how harmful it will be is up for debate.
Beran was one of the highest rated recruits in program history, and bigs almost always take a while to develop. I think there’s more juice for the squeeze.
Comical.
These sorts of comments never fail to disappoint. Many of the same people who a couple months ago still spoke highly of him are now of the opinion that he stunk.
The transfer was bad enough, but transferring to a conference rival makes for horrible optics.
I don't know. Because if we went back a year, I think the conversation about Kopp would be very different. He was scoring 13 a game, shooting 40% from 3. So I don't think it's as easy as just saying he shot poorly last year, no biggie.
Like him or not, he opened spaced for other players. I'm not sure the new dude from FD does. I don't think losing him is a positive, just don't think it's catastrophic as it can bring more defense and grittiness. But I would be shocked if that comes from Beran.
I'm more hopeful the new dude is a solid role player. And that Audige/Buie are more mature. If that holds I think we are better than last year relative to competition.
Would truly like to see an experienced PG in the roster. Don't care about a great scorer (we would probably never be in the run for one of those anyway). Just a calming presence on the floor. Not that I don't think Buie is capable. He is, but if he does not materialize this season, I can hear all the Greer fans here talk and all I hear is the Charlie Brown teacher: womp womp womp.
Recruiting rankings are indicators, they are not guarantees.
I said I don't dislike the kid. Just don't see the leap to a solid B1G player this year. His progression from FR to SO was more of a regression. Maybe in 22/23
Kopp was a non factor on defense (a true liability), a very poor ball handler, someone who could not or would not REBOUND, a non physical presence, and someone not prone to effort nor leadership. It is the era of free agency and there is nothing anyone can do about his transfer other than say "thanks and good bye." If his one dimensional shooter tag works out for him at IU then more power to him. But there is only one orange ball and IU has a big man that will be their focus and a plethora of new guards that are proven and willing shooters. Methinks that off the bench he won't get many touches and opportunities. Life in the B1G is extremely tough and the move will show how tough he is.
This is the direction I started thinking.
Does NU take a drop replacing Kopp with Beran? Unless Beran improves, you'd have a hard time convincing me they don't.
But does NU improve with a guy who scores a more efficient 8-10 ppg in the conference and plays better defense? I think so. And I don't think that's asking for the world.
Throw a better 3-pt shooter somewhere in the rotation, and you probably have a better team.
Is that part of a tournament bubble team? I don't think so. I think they need 12-14 ppg from somewhere as well as a better defender.
If one of the freshmen is a fairly reliable 3-pt shooter, all I think they need is another big body. But that may be asking too much. Who knows in the new world of the mega portal?
The challenge to me is that we don't appear to have a system that produces shots or a strong philosophy that limits opponent's shots. The team's fortunes appear driven by the amount of raw talent on the floor. And I'm not sure one can say that we'll put a whole lot more raw talent on the floor next year. Maybe the B1G being down overall will be enough for the Cats to have success, but that's a uninspiring way to look at things.
Doubt it. Last year’s frosh will be sophs and able to play more. We have 3 good recruits in coming plus a transfer. I would say our depth will be better despite losing Kopp and Gaines.
I think Collins has a habit of sticking with players too long and hoping things are going to “turn around”. I doubt Collins thought Kopp was our best player, but he was considered as a junior to be one of our top 4-5. Frankly I think it will turn out to be addition by subtraction. Kopp had a limited skill set, but apparently thought he was better. He was given every chance (too many in my opinion) to succeed last year, and didn’t.
Those Beran numbers are flawed.
Look at the same stats in Big Ten games.
Beran's ORtg was 94.8, DRtg was 111.3
Kopp's ORtg was 92.9, DRtg was 110.4
(The formulas are explained here. It is complicated...
When you simply look at the points we scored and allowed when each player was on the court, it is obvious that Beran was our 8th best player, ahead of only Ryan Greer.
I normalized each players performance into a final score, using the last 13 games of the season... these are adjusted for playing time...
Off Def
Ryan Young 59.8 - 62.3 -2.5
Ty Berry 63.1 - 65.7 -2.6
Miller Kopp 62.5 - 67.2 -4.7
Boo Buie 60.8 - 66.9 -6.1
Pete Nance 62.8 - 69.1 -6.3
Chase Audige 63.0 - 70.7 -7.7
Anthony Gaines 60.0 - 68.1 -8.1
Robbie Beran 60.0 - 72.2 -12.2
Ryan Greer 58.0 - 75.3 -17.3
What is most galling about these stats is the fact that when Robbie Beran and Pete Nance played together, our performance projected to a 57.6 - 75.0 blowout loss. That level of performance is equal to Ryan Greer's overall results, which is to say... not good.
The season was ruined by
1. Coach Collins' insistence on playing Robbie Beran with Pete Nance. Kryptonite to both players.
2. Coach Collins' insistence on playing Anthony Gaines with Ryan Young. Young's worst combo by far.
3. Coach Collins' reluctance to play Ryan Young with Pete Nance. Our best combo played 10 mpg.
To further the point....
When Beran played with Nance, we got outscored by 79 points over 13 games (181 minutes of playing time).
When Beran played with Ryan Young, we got outscored by 1 point over 13 games. (72 minutes)
When Nance played without Robbie Beran, we outscored our opponents by 19 pts (200 minutes)
When Ryan Young played with Anthony Gaines, we got outscored by 44 points over 13 games. (167 minutes)
When Ryan Young played with anybody but Gaines, we outscored our opponents by 26 pts. (111 minutes)
It doesn't take any skill to realize that bad lineups cost NU at least 8 points a game.
Play Nance and Young together.
Play Beran with Young, not Nance.
Play Gaines with Nance, not Young.
Go to NCAA tournament.
Man, I'd hate to see your evaluations of Nance and Beran when they hit the road.
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