Next Season

[Catdude]

A huge variable in the decision regarding Collins is that if (and this is a massive and unknown if) everyone who can return does return, we should have some of the best talent in the conference. Most of the top teams are losing so much to the NBA or expired eligibility. The latest mock drafts have six or seven Big 10 guys in the first round. Granted, these teams will have stud freshmen coming in and can more easily reload through the portal. But I still think we should have top-half talent which is almost unprecedented at NU.

So I can’t believe I’m saying this (because I firmly sat in the fire Collins camp two weeks ago) but I am coming around to the idea that next season is an NCAA or bust season (if Collins can keep most or all of our main guys). If we have a bunch of meaningful transfers out this spring, then it’s time to move on.

 

[GatoLouco]

This was supposed to be the NCAA or bust season. And the goal posts move. We are so damn patient and delusional. The year after the tournament we were ranked, we were a shoe in for at least making the tourney.

I am not advocating deciding right now whether CC stays or goes. And I have no doubt he is not going anywhere. And while, in the overwhelming majority of cases, there's a complete erosion of the roster, there's the occasional Mike Woodson, who manages to keep a core together. And our specific circumstances as an academic institution might make a case for not being so prone to seeing everyone leaving. We have literally not lost a single "relevant" player in the last two coaching cycles. Some debatable cases, like Kopp. But good argument to be made we did not lose a single one.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I mean, presumably losing a guy like Nance isn’t usually a talent loss NU can usually just absorb (like the year Coble went down and we still wanted to make the tournament… when was the last time NU could lose an all conference player and just shrug it off?), and I also assume the Big Ten will remain tough next year with a new wave of guys, but sure, why not be hopeful!

 

[Hungry Jack]

I don't think we will ever have "some of the best talent in the conference." Nance drives me batty sometimes, but he is still a guy you have to gameplan around (at least a bit). And streaky Boo can certainly force teams to adjust to him when he's shooting well.

Collins really needs to coach these guys more effectively if we are going to break through. The issue with shot selection by our guards continues to plague us. And the way we attack opposing teams at times makes me scratch my head. We have OK talent, but until we get a transcendent player, our kids are going to have play really smart basketball if we are going to reach the upper tiers of the conference.

 

[PurpleFaze]

I don’t see Collins being let go after this season. He needs to limit transfers out and try and find 1-2 legit transfer additions in the front court.

the biggest question for the staff is can they learn how to maximize what talent they have and get them to play smarter basketball

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

A huge variable in the decision regarding Collins is that if (and this is a massive and unknown if) everyone who can return does return, we should have some of the best talent in the conference. Most of the top teams are losing so much to the NBA or expired eligibility. The latest mock drafts have six or seven Big 10 guys in the first round. Granted, these teams will have stud freshmen coming in and can more easily reload through the portal. But I still think we should have top-half talent which is almost unprecedented at NU.

So I can’t believe I’m saying this (because I firmly sat in the fire Collins camp two weeks ago) but I am coming around to the idea that next season is an NCAA or bust season (if Collins can keep most or all of our main guys). If we have a bunch of meaningful transfers out this spring, then it’s time to move on.

I think you could have a major problem up front next year. I don’t see Nance returning, kid should have his degree, time to take your shot. If he wants to take the free year, would he be better as a Robin to the teams Batman on another team? Young would presumably have his degree too. Why stay? Williams is out of eligibility. I know some have Nicholson as the next big thing, but having MN, Beran and Hunger as your Bigs presents major problems. Bottom half of the league problems.

 

[freewillie07]

This was supposed to be the NCAA or bust season. And the goal posts move. We are so damn patient and delusional. The year after the tournament we were ranked, we were a shoe in for at least making the tourney.

I am not advocating deciding right now whether CC stays or goes. And I have no doubt he is not going anywhere. And while, in the overwhelming majority of cases, there's a complete erosion of the roster, there's the occasional Mike Woodson, who manages to keep a core together. And our specific circumstances as an academic institution might make a case for not being so prone to seeing everyone leaving. We have literally not lost a single "relevant" player in the last two coaching cycles. Some debatable cases, like Kopp. But good argument to be made we did not lose a single one.

I hear you, I have said for years that this is the make or break year. A lot of that was based on the idea that Nance and *Kopp* would develop into all-league guys.

Kopp clearly didn’t pan out. On the other hand, we have something of a youth movement on our hands with Roper and Simmons. It’s not all or nothing this year.

I’m willing to give CCC a chance to find that one missing piece in the transfer portal now that we lost Rowan. Next year’s team looks at least as good, and possibly better. Didn’t think that was necessarily going to be the case a couple of years ago.

 

[hdhntr1]

This was supposed to be the NCAA or bust season. And the goal posts move. We are so damn patient and delusional. The year after the tournament we were ranked, we were a shoe in for at least making the tourney.

I am not advocating deciding right now whether CC stays or goes. And I have no doubt he is not going anywhere. And while, in the overwhelming majority of cases, there's a complete erosion of the roster, there's the occasional Mike Woodson, who manages to keep a core together. And our specific circumstances as an academic institution might make a case for not being so prone to seeing everyone leaving. We have literally not lost a single "relevant" player in the last two coaching cycles. Some debatable cases, like Kopp. But good argument to be made we did not lose a single one.

We were never any kind of" shoe in to make tourney" And if you recall that year, we were playing in Allstate Area, McIntosh got injured in DEC and was never quite the same. It was disappointing but understandable.

 

[hdhntr1]

I mean, presumably losing a guy like Nance isn’t usually a talent loss NU can usually just absorb (like the year Coble went down and we still wanted to make the tournament… when was the last time NU could lose an all conference player and just shrug it off?), and I also assume the Big Ten will remain tough next year with a new wave of guys, but sure, why not be hopeful!

But ever thought that we might not lose him? He hasn't shown what it takes to make it to the next level and doesn't he have the opportunity for a COVID year?

 

[Titanium999]

Definitely sweet sixteen

 

[AdamOnFirst]

But ever thought that we might not lose him? He hasn't shown what it takes to make it to the next level and doesn't he have the opportunity for a COVID year?

I mean, yeah, if he sticks around that’s a pretty big deal, this becomes an extremely veteran team, one that near the pinnacle of how talented and experienced an NU team is likely to be.

 

[peatymeanis]

But ever thought that we might not lose him? He hasn't shown what it takes to make it to the next level and doesn't he have the opportunity for a COVID year?

There’s still good money to be made outside the NBA as a pro. Nance is probably good enough to play in one of the top European leagues, and his game fits well into Euro ball.

If he stayed in college, why grind out another year at NU? Go play for a team with deep NCAA ambitions and experience something different. Maybe a different coach than Collins can expand his game. He’s squeezed out about everything he can at NU.

 

[NUCat320]

A huge variable in the decision regarding Collins is that if (and this is a massive and unknown if) everyone who can return does return, we should have some of the best talent in the conference.

This comment is so purple-colored as to be laughable.

 

[Catdude]

Maybe a little overstated but who’s returning more? When I look at the rest of the conference, I don’t see a lot of teams bringing back their best players.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Maybe a little overstated but who’s returning more? When I look at the rest of the conference, I don’t see a lot of teams bringing back their best players.

Iowa will finally say goodbye to the Skinny White Metronome of Open Shot Death, Jordan Bohannon, but they will return most of the players from a team that is starting to play some good basketball.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Maybe a little overstated but who’s returning more? When I look at the rest of the conference, I don’t see a lot of teams bringing back their best players.

Some teams are expected to lose their best players, but with the transfer portal, you really don't know what you'll be up against next year. Or who will be on your own roster.

 

[IdahoAlum]

And keep in mind Collins can always figure out a way to minimize whatever talent he does have.

 

[Deeringfish]

Some teams are expected to lose their best players, but with the transfer portal, you really don't know what you'll be up against next year. Or who will be on your own roster.

I don't know that you can count on replacing your best players out of the portal. To me portal guys tend to be guys on good teams looking for more time (so not he best) or guys on bad teams looking for change to get into the tournament like Nance. Is Nance going replace the best player on any B1G team that is a contender. I think if Nu can keep Nance and get somebody that is solid and fills a need, they would be pretty good next year.
Maybe it all comes down to NIL. Can we get $50,000 per player to get these guys to stick around?

 

[uiguy]

Gentlemen: I will give you an outsider's view of the CCC basketball program as I am an Illini fan. NW is probably middle 3rd in talent in the B1G this year, maybe lower middle 3rd but still better than 3-5 teams. In fact, I don't think you have much less talent than Rutgers, maybe fairly even. You've been competitive in most of your B1G losses and have 5 wins so you could easily be 7-7 or even 8-6 rather than 5-9. But something is missing and it mostly shows up in the last 5 minutes of close games. You follow the Cats much closer than I do so you may have a far better idea of what it is than I do but my conclusion is one word: discipline (see Audige and Buie shot selection for example). And IMO that comes back to coaching.

CC seems like a likeable person, he has certainly learned from two of the best - K and his own father - but I don't believe giving him another year with the same group of players plus whomever they can land recruiting/portal-wise is going to move the needle much. He's brought in good players before and seemingly will be successful in landing additional high 3* or low 4* guys but if I was a NW fan I would be ready for change after what? 8 years? As an Illini fan I hope he stays because I can't see what will be different for you going forward.

 

[DaCat]

Gentlemen: I will give you an outsider's view of the CCC basketball program as I am an Illini fan. NW is probably middle 3rd in talent in the B1G this year, maybe lower middle 3rd but still better than 3-5 teams. In fact, I don't think you have much less talent than Rutgers, maybe fairly even. You've been competitive in most of your B1G losses and have 5 wins so you could easily be 7-7 or even 8-6 rather than 5-9. But something is missing and it mostly shows up in the last 5 minutes of close games. You follow the Cats much closer than I do so you may have a far better idea of what it is than I do but my conclusion is one word: discipline (see Audige and Buie shot selection for example). And IMO that comes back to coaching.

CC seems like a likeable person, he has certainly learned from two of the best - K and his own father - but I don't believe giving him another year with the same group of players plus whomever they can land recruiting/portal-wise is going to move the needle much. He's brought in good players before and seemingly will be successful in landing additional high 3* or low 4* guys but if I was a NW fan I would be ready for change after what? 8 years? As an Illini fan I hope he stays because I can't see what will be different for you going forward.

That's a fair assessment. Believe me, Buie and Audige drives everyone crazy. They make a lot of good plays, then offset them with a lot of bad plays. It's been that way these past 2 years.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Gentlemen: I will give you an outsider's view of the CCC basketball program as I am an Illini fan. NW is probably middle 3rd in talent in the B1G this year, maybe lower middle 3rd but still better than 3-5 teams. In fact, I don't think you have much less talent than Rutgers, maybe fairly even. You've been competitive in most of your B1G losses and have 5 wins so you could easily be 7-7 or even 8-6 rather than 5-9. But something is missing and it mostly shows up in the last 5 minutes of close games. You follow the Cats much closer than I do so you may have a far better idea of what it is than I do but my conclusion is one word: discipline (see Audige and Buie shot selection for example). And IMO that comes back to coaching.

CC seems like a likeable person, he has certainly learned from two of the best - K and his own father - but I don't believe giving him another year with the same group of players plus whomever they can land recruiting/portal-wise is going to move the needle much. He's brought in good players before and seemingly will be successful in landing additional high 3* or low 4* guys but if I was a NW fan I would be ready for change after what? 8 years? As an Illini fan I hope he stays because I can't see what will be different for you going forward.

Very reasonable take. Could not agree more that our issues really manifest late in close games, where we struggle to make good shot opportunities, and often fail to convert them when we do. I think this leads to hero ball antics by Boo and Chase, with predictable results.

I think a closer could transform this team, but that’s a tall order.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Gentlemen: I will give you an outsider's view of the CCC basketball program as I am an Illini fan. NW is probably middle 3rd in talent in the B1G this year, maybe lower middle 3rd but still better than 3-5 teams. In fact, I don't think you have much less talent than Rutgers, maybe fairly even. You've been competitive in most of your B1G losses and have 5 wins so you could easily be 7-7 or even 8-6 rather than 5-9. But something is missing and it mostly shows up in the last 5 minutes of close games. You follow the Cats much closer than I do so you may have a far better idea of what it is than I do but my conclusion is one word: discipline (see Audige and Buie shot selection for example). And IMO that comes back to coaching.

CC seems like a likeable person, he has certainly learned from two of the best - K and his own father - but I don't believe giving him another year with the same group of players plus whomever they can land recruiting/portal-wise is going to move the needle much. He's brought in good players before and seemingly will be successful in landing additional high 3* or low 4* guys but if I was a NW fan I would be ready for change after what? 8 years? As an Illini fan I hope he stays because I can't see what will be different for you going forward.

So all we need is a bit more discipline and then we beat Illinois twice this year, with your far superior talent? Thanks for making my argument that we should keep Collins longer. He’s in these guys’ ears all the time about poor shot selection, and both Audige and Buie have significantly improved in that facet this year. They struggle against better talent for obvious reasons.

 

[uiguy]

So all we need is a bit more discipline and then we beat Illinois twice this year, with your far superior talent? Thanks for making my argument that we should keep Collins longer. He’s in these guys’ ears all the time about poor shot selection, and both Audige and Buie have significantly improved in that facet this year. They struggle against better talent for obvious reasons.

If you're happy with the same results season after season after 8-9 seasons then keep Collins - as an opponent I'm all for it.

 

[SDakaGordie]

If you're happy with the same results season after season after 8-9 seasons then keep Collins - as an opponent I'm all for it.

We have very down years because of our recruiting limitations; it’s been our own fact pattern throughout our history. You have final four talent (just like last year, where your coach was embarrassed in the NCAAs). We’ve seen significant overall performance improvement (which hasn’t translated into as many W/L as we’d all like), and our team is ripe for more success next year if we retain our players. In the end, you can argue W/L as the only criteria, but I think looking deeper is appropriate.

 

[NUCat320]

If you're happy with the same results season after season after 8-9 seasons then keep Collins - as an opponent I'm all for it.

Gordie has never seen a Wildcat failure he couldn’t find an excuse for, FYI.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Gordie has never seen a Wildcat failure he couldn’t find an excuse for, FYI.

Your comments can be my first one.

 

[peatymeanis]

which hasn’t translated into as many W/L as we’d all like

That’s called failing. Now go ahead and bring up the admissions excuse again so we can come full circle.

 

[DaCat]

We have very down years because of our recruiting limitations; it’s been our own fact pattern throughout our history. You have final four talent (just like last year, where your coach was embarrassed in the NCAAs). We’ve seen significant overall performance improvement (which hasn’t translated into as many W/L as we’d all like), and our team is ripe for more success next year if we retain our players. In the end, you can argue W/L as the only criteria, but I think looking deeper is appropriate.

Come on Gordie, let's be real. We've struggled to protect decent- to sizeable leads late in many games especially this year and last. We're not getting blown out. But the fact that we consistently lose close games is a telling sign of something... the blame has to be shared by the collection of players and ultimately the coach.

 

[mountaindrew]

Come on Gordie, let's be real. We've struggled to protect decent- to sizeable leads late in many games especially this year and last. We're not getting blown out. But the fact that we consistently lose close games is a telling sign of something... the blame has to be shared by the collection of players and ultimately the coach.

Yup. We're not the only school in the BIG that has recruiting limitations, or a hard time beating out Michigan State, Mich, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio State for top talent... but those others don't seem to blow late leads over and over and over again.... Hmmmmm.

 

[Hans]

So all we need is a bit more discipline and then we beat Illinois twice this year, with your far superior talent? Thanks for making my argument that we should keep Collins longer. He’s in these guys’ ears all the time about poor shot selection, and both Audige and Buie have significantly improved in that facet this year. They struggle against better talent for obvious reasons.

I don't get lumping Buie and Audige together here. Buie seems to have turned the corner, protects the ball pretty well and I don't take issue with his shot selection. Audige on the other hand really made some mistakes which was disappointing since he seemed to turn a corner (at least a little) there the last couple of weeks. Difficult not to keep him on the floor though, his defense is just too damn good. By far the best defender we have and has made plays on that end of the floor, also late.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

My stance on Collins? I think he's the closest we have been to being a legitimate program. And I don't want to hear about Carmody (who I liked) being better cause he made a few NIT tournaments. I think it was pretty clear he plateaued there, and we ran a gimmicky offense that was designed to slow games down since we didn't have as much overall talent. Those teams had a few good/very good players each year on the team, but almost always had serious depth issues.

So Collins has had one tourney appearance, and there is no doubt that his teams have under-performed these last 3-4 years. No arguments there. But as is always the case with this kind of thing, who are we going to get that is going to take us to the next level? And will that guy want to stay if he has success? If you fire Collins, which would be totally fair at this point, who are you going to bring in that gets as good of players/better players and makes us a more consistent winner? Is it impossible? Absolutely not, but it's a challenge to find that guy. So if you fire Collins, you better have a good replacement in mind. Last thing I want is to fire him and then bring in someone that brings no excitement to the program and is a step backwards. I have no idea why my mind goes here, but I don't want a situation like Minnesota football in the late 90's/2000's. That was a bad program for a long time, then they bring on Glen Mason (who I don't even like) in 1997 and he takes them to seven bowl games in 10 years, including five in a row at the end of his tenure. They decide at that point that they can be a better program, move on from him, and bring in Tim Brewster...who immediately goes 1-11 in his first season, and is fired after four seasons. Then they bring in Jerry Kill, who has pretty similar success. The point is that you may have a thing going that is better than you realize. We aren't Duke. We aren't Kansas. We aren't even Wisconsin or Iowa. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try and get better and become a better program, but you also have to realize what you are and what the likely ceiling is for your program considering how limited we are with a small fanbase and the limited talent pool that can even get into NU. It's a fine line to walk.

I could accept Collins getting fired after this season or getting another year. I'm kind of in the middle on it (probably leaning slightly towards keeping him), so I wouldn't be upset either way.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

So all we need is a bit more discipline and then we beat Illinois twice this year, with your far superior talent? Thanks for making my argument that we should keep Collins longer. He’s in these guys’ ears all the time about poor shot selection, and both Audige and Buie have significantly improved in that facet this year. They struggle against better talent for obvious reasons.

Gordie, he didn't say we would beat Illinois twice if we had more discipline.
Where does he say anything like that?
And then you extrapolate from a false basis to claim that he's making your argument to keep Collins.
And then you claim that Collins is on Buie and Audige about shot selection, which you have no basis for because Audige and now even Ryan Young are launching 3's.

I can more easily claim that Collins is telling everybody on the team to shoot whenever they're open from anywhere on the court.
But at least I'll admit that I'm making it up.

 

[Styre]

I have no idea why my mind goes here, but I don't want a situation like Minnesota football in the late 90's/2000's. That was a bad program for a long time, then they bring on Glen Mason (who I don't even like) in 1997 and he takes them to seven bowl games in 10 years, including five in a row at the end of his tenure. They decide at that point that they can be a better program, move on from him, and bring in Tim Brewster...who immediately goes 1-11 in his first season, and is fired after four seasons. Then they bring in Jerry Kill, who has pretty similar success. The point is that you may have a thing going that is better than you realize. We aren't Duke. We aren't Kansas. We aren't even Wisconsin or Iowa.

I get what you're saying, but if Chris Collins had anywhere near the level of success that Glen Mason had at Minnesota, nobody here would be calling for his head. Comparisons like this tend to gloss over just how bad Collins' tenure has been, even factoring in 2017.

 

[peatymeanis]

Glen Mason (who I don't even like) in 1997 and he takes them to seven bowl games in 10 years, including five in a row at the end of his tenure.

And now let’s compare that to Collins’ record… A more apt comparison would be if Glen Mason had taken the gophers to the Outback Bowl once in 9 years and never made a single bowl otherwise. If Collins were doing the equivalent job that Glen Mason did, nobody would be calling for his head.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

I get what you're saying, but if Chris Collins had anywhere near the level of success that Glen Mason had at Minnesota, nobody here would be calling for his head. Comparisons like this tend to gloss over just how bad Collins' tenure has been, even factoring in 2017.

The point I am making, which I may not be doing well, is I think it's important as a program to know what your REALISTIC sustainable peak is. Sure we all want to be a good program that competes for conference championships consistently, but is that really realistic? Possible? Sure. Realistic? Probably not. To me, barring the absolute perfect hire, our realistic sustainable peak is a team that makes the NCAA tourney twice every 4-5 years. And maybe in one of those years we make a little run in the NCAA tourney, or we have a great season and make a run at a conference title. That's possible, and if you as the AD are confident you have a guy that can come in and get us to that level, you go and get him. 100% on board. Cause Collins has had time to do that, and while I think it's clear he has raised our floor as a program, he has not been able to have much success.

That's why I'm kind of torn on what to do after this season with him. I think he's a good fit for our program and has made us a better program overall with more good players and depth. We are close...But there's no doubt he has had a long time to get it done and the results haven't been there. So I can absolutely understand if they say "you've had enough time, time to move on".

 

[SDakaGordie]

Gordie, he didn't say we would beat Illinois twice if we had more discipline.
Where does he say anything like that?
And then you extrapolate from a false basis to claim that he's making your argument to keep Collins.
And then you claim that Collins is on Buie and Audige about shot selection, which you have no basis for because Audige and now even Ryan Young are launching 3's.

I can more easily claim that Collins is telling everybody on the team to shoot whenever they're open from anywhere on the court.
But at least I'll admit that I'm making it up.

I don’t need to get into your word-parsing game; PPD has spoken truth on that subject already. All I will add is that inference is a normal part of language and reasoning; if you don’t want to allow me to reasonably infer something, so be it and I’ll not engage you.

 

[phatcat]

And now let’s compare that to Collins’ record… A more apt comparison would be if Glen Mason had taken the gophers to the Outback Bowl once in 9 years and never made a single bowl otherwise. If Collins were doing the equivalent job that Glen Mason did, nobody would be calling for his head.

maybe we should hire Mason because the team sure knows how to lay bricks.

Collins isn't going anywhere because of the contract, maybe a small possibility if we lose out, but even then, I doubt it.

I see no reason for Nance to return unless he simply loves it. Why not go to Europe and make money/have fun? And - despite his inconsistency - we're a worse team without him, even if all the others come back and have a year to improve.

And the other B1G teams will rebuild/reload, I don't see us sneaking up on anyone. So - this year's ceiling is 16 wins, I can't imagine next year being better.

 

[combes]

Maybe a little overstated but who’s returning more? When I look at the rest of the conference, I don’t see a lot of teams bringing back their best players.

Illinois may have Kofi return and a healthy Curbelo. Put Melendez, Hawkins, Goode, Payne, Podziemski, 4 four-star freshmen and a likely transfer around them.

Curbelo has missed so many games with concussion and covid. Healthy, he was a preseason first team all BT and all American going into this year. He is so far behind.

I know you don’t think Kofi will return and he may not, but he is not on any draft boards. The NIL is huge here. Kofi makes the same this year as Ayo makes in the NBA. A good G-league contract is $400,000. Kofi would take a massive pay cut to play there. He may decide that he’s had enough of college and three players hanging on him, but a $1.2 million NIL will at least make him think about staying if he’s not going to be drafted.

 

[NUCat320]

I know you don’t think Kofi will return and he may not, but he is not on any draft boards. The NIL is huge here. Kofi makes the same this year as Ayo makes in the NBA. A good G-league contract is $400,000. Kofi would take a massive pay cut to play there. He may decide that he’s had enough of college and three players hanging on him, but a $1.2 million NIL will at least make him think about staying if he’s not going to be drafted.

Out of curiosity, where is Cockburn’s $$ coming from? His ‘inquiries’ contact is a gmail account.

Is he on local commercials? Can you send examples?

Color me skeptical, but also excited for the kid.

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[wildelk2]

I may be in the minority, but finishing with a winning record, as well as limiting key players from transferring out will determine in CC comes back next year. Say we lose to Purdue; we'll be 12-12. Is there any reason we shouldn't finish with a winning season with the schedule we have left?