Yep, and the talk was multiple WS titles. Just a poorly constructed roster and will be paying the price on 2 terrible trades for years. Captain Hook will be gone, but their are changes needed in the field too.
OT: Baseball Free Agents
- Thread starter Hungry Jack
- Start date
It’s a shame that Joe will take the fall, but I think he’ll be pretty happy getting hammered and reading Malcolm Gladwell and collecting speaking fees.
The pitching staff was an abomination — but, by design. Theo openly took a “hitters are predictable in the draft, pitchers are not”, and the Cubs have paid the price in free agent roulette.
If you can call it that. But hey, the Sox met expectations. How’s that dynasty?
Not great, but better than the ones in Cleveland and Los Angeles. Right there with Houston’s, at this point, anyway.
Worse places to be, I suppose.
If it weren’t for the 2nd wild card the cubs would have two playoff appearances in this 5 year stretch
Yes, the Sox did meet expectations. Moncada, Eloy show top end talent. Stars in the making. Not a giant drop off from Bryant and Babe, the number 2-3 superstars in the Cubs core. Anderson is a batting champ. Abreu leads the league in RBI. McCann is a good veteran leader. Next season Robert and Madrigal are here after the first 3 weeks of the season. That’s 7 of the 9 positions with strong major league hitters. They will make a run at JD Martinez for the 8th. There is all kinds of cash on the sidelines. Starters of Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Rodon, and a FA veteran to anchor the staff. Lopez has a shot with his stuff. Many youngsters like Dunning a couple years away. Colome is better than Kimbrel right now.
They won’t win the division next year, but will go up in the standings with a bullet. The Atlanta Braves just a couple years behind in the process. Get some RP and a RF and it’s a strong team. In two years this will be a team better than the Cubs, I would say the expectations are right on track.
I'm a big Cubs fan but don't hate the Sox (you can tell I'm not originally from Chicago!), and this is exactly right. The arrow is most definitely pointing up for the Sox next year, and depending on the offseason, I would not be surprised if they won more games than the Cubs in 2020.
Cubs fans don’t hate the Sox. Except for a few series a season and whenever their coworkers bring it up, Cubs fans think of the Sox with the same frequency with which they think of the Orioles or the Mariners.
As a baseball fan, let’s hope the Sox are fun. The lineup certainly shows promise, promise to be really good. The pitching staff is less certain.
The Sox certainly got better, but they still have a ways to go. They have posted a -133 run differential. They are 24th in MLB in Runs Against / Game. On offense, they are tied for 26th in Runs / Game. They are also near the bottom in most fielding metrics.
That's not good. There are holes to fill on every side of the ledger.
Giolito made a quantum leap in 2019 and I think he's legit. But they have a lot riding on Kopech, Cease, Covey, Thompson, etc. They could really help themselves by signing a mid-tier FA starter this winter (but avoid a huge commitment).
On offense, there is hope, but there are holes. The OF is an offensive black hole. They have got to find a CF. Unfortunately, the FA market pickings are slim for CF. Maybe Robert can handle it? Eloy probably belongs at DH. Maybe Marcell Ozuna might be an option in LF.
Could the Sox win the Rendon sweepstakes and move Moncada to 2B? That would transform the lineup. Moncada and Anderson each have ~.400 BABIPs. That is not sustainable. Nor is McCann's .360 BABIP. But these guys look like above average players. Still, between, between the OF and one infield position, there is a LOT of room for improvement.
I have it under good authority that it'd be a big shocker if Rendon doesn't resign in Washington. He's the reason why they were never really in the Harper sweepstakes (and he's a better player, so they made the right call) but he's also a Boras guy, so never say never there. He'll go to the highest bidder.
Sox will have a better version of Cease, a healthy Kopech and eventually Rodon returning next year. I think they go after someone like Alex Wood and Jake Odorizzi as rotation lynchpins and that will definitely help. You'd effectively take the innings from Covey, Detwiler, Banuelos, etc. and replace them with average or better SP.
Robert will play CF. Not sure on RF but yes it's a blackhole as of now. I bet Collins and someone like Stiever are dealt for a RF, who that RF is, no idea.
They're going to go hard after JD Martinez once he opts out and Yasmani Grandal. Abreu will be back.
I think a push for the 2nd wild card is definitely doable. Anderson will regress but if he's a .280/.315/475 20/20 guy, that's fine for the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Moncada will always carry high BABIPs (though not .400) because he murders baseballs when he makes contact. The quality of his contact is top 5% in baseball.
Sox are definitely in a good spot but they have to really capitalize this offseason.
I figured Rendon would stay put. The Nats can afford a mega deal and he’s way too good to let walk.
The Sox have some legitimate stars (5 WAR types) in the making. The falloff is huge, so it won’t take crazy money to add wins to the roster. They could really make a jump by filling 2 rotation holes and some outfielders.
It’s a big assumption to believe Cease and Kopech can be league-average next season.
Not out of the realm, but definitely optimistic. 23 year olds in their first year off of Tommy John with 14 big league innings under their belt become rotation stalwarts *all the time*, don’t they?
TINSTAAPP!!
And I don't even know who Thompson is?
This is how I see it:
100% Goners - 8 players:
Covey, Detwiler, Banuelos, Santiago, Castillo, Skole and 2 of Palka/Cordell/Engel/Tilson
Most likely gone - 4 players:
Sanchez (will be non-tendered), Engel, Nova, Osich, Fulmer
100% Added:
Robert, Madrigal
that's 13 players you can just cut bait with without batting an eye. They'll be replaced by more reputable players and the 3-4 others that need protection from the Rule 5 draft (Dunning being one) and Robert/Madrigal + Rodon/Kopech.
That leaves 4-5 spots to add quality pieces to. There will also be trades like I said because of the looming 40 man crunch. I think Collins and Stiever are goners as well. We'll see. I do think 85 wins is very doable with a good offseason
Sounds like half of the starting line-up needs to be upgraded and Jerry won't pay. So it looks like another missed playoff opportunity coming next season.
Kopech's "stuff" is A1. I'm hoping that carries him to be at least average. All about command for both him and Cease.
My bad. Confusing Zach Thompson, a reliever with some K skills, with Matthew Thompson, the HS pitcher drafted last year
ah, yeah. They REALLY like the two HS kids they took last year, but they're gonna baby them big time. Will be years before they see chicago, if they even do.
Will Abreu still be around? Surprised that they haven't traded him for pitching.
1B/DH don't have any value in trades anymore. He'll be resigned for a year or two for not a ton of money
What’s that leave for salary after dumping Castillo and Nova?
What happens to Herrera?
Herrera has another year left before they can dump him. Before arb hearings they'll be at about $20MM in committed payroll. After arb deals they'll be around $35-40MM. They have a ton of money to play with
I was wondering if they would cut him like that SP that they cut mid-season. Any reason to believe Herrera will improve?
Plus they have Andrew Vaughn in the wings. Should be ready in 2 years.
His fastball velocity was fine. 96-97. His command was brutal. The variance from year to year for relievers is huge. I don't think he'll ever be that back end stud again, but he can't possibly be worse than he was this year.
and on Vaughn, I wouldn't be surprised if he's here come July next year. He'll start in AA and they might fast track him. Not a guarantee, but I wouldn't be surprised either. Kinda a hunch I have. I talk to Tracy Smith regularly and he says he's one of the best hitters he's ever coached against
I think they should outbid every team for G. Cole. They have the money and they need that true Ace. Just like the Cubs over paid for Lester.
I would be SHOCKED if this happens. They have a ton of money, yes, but I think they go quantity over quality. I don't see them dropping $200MM+ on a 30 year old power pitcher. I wouldn't hate it if they did, but will NOT get my hopes up like I did with Machado/Harper.
That said I am really glad they didn't ink Machado or Harper at the same time
I heard Zach Thompson's name mentioned a few times on WSCR by Bruce L, but I guess he was left exposed to Rule 5 last winter. He's looking a bit like Kimbrel (minus the big contract)--good K stuff but susceptible to the long ball.
They have a decent crop of relief arms in the pipeline. Also I wouldn't put much stock into anything Levine says. Both front offices hate that guy
It's weird, I noticed you haven't posted much about Hoerner of late. Probably not a good idea to get excited about fluky homeruns and instead actually look at advanced stats/peripherals which make it clear that (1) with a wrc+ of 99, he's a below average hitter and (2) this comes despite him getting ridiculously lucky to the tune of a 27% HR/FB rate. Also, beating up on the Pirates pitching is kind of unimpressive. That is a shell of a team right now.
I wasn't gonna be the one to say it
I'd compare him a bit with Tommy Edman of the Cardinals. He's 2 years older than Nico, and seems to have developed some power in his swing finally in 2019. He slugged .513 at AAA (not nearly as impressive this year as it would have been in prior years) and has slugged .488 with the big club in 316 PAs. His HR/FB rate is 12%--a bit inflated but not outlandish. The .335 BABIP is a bit fluky but not crazy.
Hoerner is so young and has had so few professional PAs it is too early to judge him.
Tommy Edman is a good comp and one I definitely had been thinking of late (in case it's not clear, I too am a Cards fan). Edman's peripherals are also definitely fine: his BABIP is around his historical average in the minors, and his HR/FB rate is actually below the 2019 league average of 15.3%. But with that said, Edman is pacing 4.7 WAR/600 PA in a fairly large sample size, so Hoerner has a very long way to go to match that production. He's younger, so it's always possible...
Edman hit his 11th homer last night in AZ. Now slugging an even .500. 119 wRC+. Up to 2.7 fWAR in 321 PAs. Fangraphs says positive value on baserunning and defense too.
If he spells the end of the Jairo Munoz era, he's a 10 WAR player in my book.
Nothing can spell the end of the Yairo Muñoz era, because he will live on in our hearts* forever.
*may also include the 2019 playoff roster
