OT: Baseball Free Agents
- Thread starter Hungry Jack
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I don't think you understand advanced statistics, which is the main problem here. Batting average and counting stats aren't what people use in the real world to measure value. Start looking at metrics like wOBA, wrc+, and ops+, which actually measure offensive output in a way that allows you to compare players' performance. Hoerner just doesn't look good enough at offense or defense to stick at SS - there will be other players who provide more value on at least one side of that equation, and this is reflected in his pedestrian WAR totals. He's definitely a solid, above average MLB middle infielder, which is a totally respectable player to find in a first round draft pick. Just no evidence he'll become the player you seem to think he is.
I understand advanced statistics but I don't completely lose myself in them at the expense of what my own eyes tell me. Just like I don't rely solely on star rankings or physical measurable to tell me whether a football recruit will be a good player. Evaluating players, especially young and still developing players, solely based on statistical analysis is a flawed approach that leads to bad decisions. If one looked solely at advanced statistics to evaluate young players like you are advocating, one would have never been able to project the power and RBI potential of a young player like Ryne Sandberg who never showed any power/RBI potential until he was a couple of years into the majors.
Go back in this thread to see exactly the type of offensive stat line that I projected for Horner and compare it to the numbers he has put up in this short stint in the majors. Projecting out his number over a full season and allowing for some slippage and you still get numbers that are right in line with what I projected for him and numbers that look well above average (not elite) for a SS or a 2nd baseman. As far as your interpretation of his defensive abilities are concerned, your biased position on the subject is skewing your analysis. Even Chicagocatfan24, who was originally arguing a position more similar to yours, acknowledges that defensively Hoerner has been impressive at SS. Hoerner is a major league SS and the only reason he won't play there on an everyday basis for the Cubs is Javy Baez. On that basis alone, holding everything else equal, he is a more valuable player than Madrigal. Let's not forget, that was my original claim that sparked this discussion. My contention was and is that Madigal was a bad reach pick at #4 in the draft and that Hoerner, drafted at #24, will turn out to be a better player than Madrigal. In my opinion he is well on his way to proving it.
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In retrospect, a fair assessment should have also included RBIs as a category. I'll stick to what we agreed unless you are comfortable amending.
Yes, he's has not spent time in AAA yet and his best positions are either 2b or CF. Also if you feel he's below average offensively, you must be watching a different player. Guess Hahn doesn't think as highly of Madrigal as you and a few others because he's quoted as saying that the Sox aren't ready to contend next season.
You are all over the place here Willy. I don’t know which Hahn interview you saw or when, but he certainly is not saying the Sox are not ready to contend next season. What he didn’t predict was a title. This interview was yesterday. Different things. He isn’t going to put pressure at this stage on a young team to win now. Realistically, they are 1-2 years out. This is a team which has its window opening not closing like we witnessed on the North side.
Madrigal is but one player. 2021 is my prediction.
But what kind of Sox wins v Cob wins would you wager for 2020? With cubs about 12+ ahead of Sox this year, I’ll take Sox +6. What do ya say?
Hoerner will need to hit significantly better than Madrigal to be a more valuable MLB player.
Well he's quoted in today's papers as saying that, " it's premature to say that we are the winning stage" and that 2020 might not be the year either, Sure sounds like he's predicting another losing season and empty ballpark. It was interesting also that he says they need more production from the DH spot, Don't they have two pretty good hitting designated hitters in Jimenez and Abreu. He also says that they need more starting pitching and a right fielder. Think this have missed the boat in not getting pitching help by trading Abreu.
just think what top of line pitcher he could have brought back in a trade and you'd still have Jimenez at his best position, DH.
I say 2021. TJS takes two years, one out of BB, one of pitching before usually returning to value.
2021:
SP - Giglio, Rodon, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, FA
RP - tons in the minors and Hahn does ok w FA signings
C - McGann, Collins
1B - Vaughn, Collins
2B - Mad
SS - Anderson
3B - Moncada
RF - TBD
CF - Robert
LF - Jimenez
DH - Abreu
With more than a half dozen potential OFs in the minors, I expect one to make it to the show. L Garcia, Mendick, etc in utility roles.
There is almost no payroll in that lineup so I would expect 2-3 big money signings over the next two seasons. Probably an OF, a SP and a wildcard.
And hopefully, that opens the window in 2021 for a few years. At least more years than the Cubs recent window.
Dude. None. There was no market for Abreu-type 1B. You obviously have no idea what you’re talking about, which shouldn’t surprise me given your fandom.
That statement makes absolutely no sense. How does a player who has the positional flexibility to play the most premium defensive position in baseball, in addition to 2nd base, have to hit better than the player who can only play 2nd base in order to be considered more valuable? Actually the reverse is true.
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One because he is average at D at SS. Anyone who follows the game can see that. Madigral is WAY better on D. He will be a better player long term
Remember last spring when one of the projection systems (I think maybe Zips) projected the Cuubs for ~80 wins, and people went nuts?
Actually, these guys weren't too far off, though they missed badly on the Rockies and Braves.
Actually, these guys weren't too far off, though they missed badly on the Rockies and Braves.
Is this a joke? Are you seriously unable to recognize that a player who plays even an average major league shortstop, the premium defensive position in baseball, in addition to being a top notch second baseman is a more valuable player than a player who can play second base only. This is just common sense, it doesn’t even require much baseball knowledge to recognize this to be true.
Honest question you said you have seen Madrigal in person. When and where? Since you have seen both live in person, I find it challenging to believe anyone would think Hoerner is a better defender. I guess my scouting is not up to par with yours.
I never said I saw Madrigal in person. I have seen Hoerner in person in South Bend and Madrigal play on TV in college. That being said, I find it challenging to believe anyone who has seen Hoerner play SS at the major league level and knows that Hoerner also played very well at 2nd in the minors believes that Madrigal can possibly be considered a more valuable defensive player even if you believe Madrigal plays 2nd base at a very high level. For some reason you think that Hoerner, who has proven he can play SS as an everyday player at the major League level, can’t play 2nd base as well as Madrigal. He can and he has already proven it in the minors. Good shortstops can fairly easily make the switch to 2nd but 2nd baseman usually don’t have the skills to play short. Not dissimilar from tackles in football who can typically move inside to guard if needed but guards usually can’t move outside to play tackle. OL who can play tackle are more valuable than guards just like middle infielders who can play Short are more valuable than middle infielders that can only play 2nd. That’s just common sense.
Well you said you only develop strong opinions after seeing players in person. That explains your stance on Hoerner, but you certainly have a strong opinion on Madrigal being worse. Too say they would be similar defensively at 2B because one can play shortstop isn’t always accurate. Your average fielding SS isn’t going to switch to 2B and become Robbie Alomar or Julio Cruz at second. Madrigal has elite defensive skills. He isn’t David Bote at 2B.
Look we should be able to have a discussion where there is legitimate debate or shall we call them “opinions” without the belittling of said opinion as a joke. I never said Hoerner would be a bad Major League player. We have a gentleman’s bet on first to 500 AB’s and you are in good shape there. I am higher on Madrigal than most and honestly was more impressed with Addy Russell than Hoerner at the same stage, especially in the field. That looks like I will be wrong. Hoerner is going to be a 2B so this talk about SS is irrelevant. Looks like we we have a lot of years with both playing a lot of game in this city, so we will have fun with it.
That's just it, I don't have a strong opinion on Madrigal being bad. I've said multiple times that Madrigal could very likely turn out to be exactly the player that Hahn taught he was and even so, that was a bad pick at that point in the draft and Hoerner is likely to turn out to be the better player because in my opinion he has more power potential, has the positional flexibility to play shortstop on an everyday at the major league level and will hit for a high average at a level similar to Madrigal. My contention has always been that everything else being about equal, you take the player with the higher power potential and the greater positional flexibility.
Just to reiterate, the Sox missed the boat not trading Abreu and year ago. They already have a DH on their roster by the name of Jimenez. So it you who showing very little knowledge of baseball.
Opinions can and are biased based on what side of town you root for. If I would have told anyone that the Cubs core of stars, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Contreras would have offensive stats very similar to Abreu, Anderson, Moncada, and McCann before the season started, I would have been blasted as a moron. Not so silly right now is it.
My bias has me thinking that you can play Hoerner and SS, 2B, or CF next year and the Pale Hose Will win the position battle versus the Cubs. Eloy won’t ever be even an average LF, but he is 40 HR’s and 100 RBI waiting to happen. He isn’t DH’ing at this stage if his career.
You might of missed it but Abreu just won the American League RBI crown. Sox sure missed the boat on trading him a year ago for those couple of B level prospects he would bring.
It’s entirely possible that Madrigal won’t justify being the 4th pick in the draft. Baseball is much more of a crapshoot in the draft for a number of reasons. You are also correct that Hahn has not showed the ability to draft stars in the draft. He doesn’t have the Theo chops so far. Almora was the 6th pick pre- Theo and I think we know what we have there. So being a top 10 pick doesn’t guarantee stardom. The jury is still out on Madrigal.
I will say that Hahn’s trades have netted studs, he rebounded from the horrendous Tatis trade. Absolutely fleeced Theo on the Quintana trade, destroyed the Nasty Nats on the Eaton trade and has a reasonable shot to get the best of the Bosox on the Sale trade.
Now Theo has traded Eloy, Cease, Torres and even Soler for the present. Soler just led the AL in HR’s. At least a couple of those deals netted Chapman ( bites lip) and Montgomery for the WS run. However, now they are paying the price. I will be interested in how Theo addresses the dysfunction without breaking up the core. To me, one if the core goes and he starts getting younger guys like Hoerner in the mix. The SP is becoming a senior league team and the bullpen is in shambles. I think Theo is very bright but he has his work cut out for him.
My point doesn't change. What was the market for his level of 1B/DH types in July 2018? In the offseason between 2018 and 2019? Next to nothing.
The RBI crown is not exactly highly-coveted. We've got this argument in the bag; don't lessen it.
Lol, ok if you insist.The RBI crown is not exactly highly-coveted. We've got this argument in the bag; don't lessen it.
And as long as they keep him they still won't be a legitimate contender because they need starting pitching outfield help and possibly another true infielder. You can't really believe Mccann will have another season like the last, Anderson either. Well you have posted about dozen times , saying the same thing over and over but sure doesn't seem like a lot of people think like you or that you're convincing them to feel that way. Good luck.
What is so difficult to understand here? He is a 1B/DH that's 33 years old. He's not netting anything of quality value in a trade. He's more valuable to the White Sox than other teams. You're acting like they could trade him for Scherzer straight up.
Oh Willy Willy my friend, I don’t posts opinions to get likes and be in the group think. I take stands, not always right, far from it. However, I do find it golden that you of all people give me a shot for making repetitive posts.
Potholes, small stadium, parking points, Cushing sucks, taxpayer stadium, big wigs squeezing out us poor loyal fans in the best seats, any of this ring a bell. ding ding
