He broke the streak, but I think they’re still “under” the hump based on the seasons sinceYes, you can't minimize the importance of getting NU over the hump, given how bad the history and facilities were when CCC came on board.
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He broke the streak, but I think they’re still “under” the hump based on the seasons sinceYes, you can't minimize the importance of getting NU over the hump, given how bad the history and facilities were when CCC came on board.
Yes, you can't minimize the importance of getting NU over the hump, given how bad the history and facilities were when CCC came on board.
NU recruited poorly for three years — no Big Ten starters from Pardon to Kopp. NU appears to have locked down its third straight pretty good class. (I’ve seen enough of Kopp, Young, Boo, Beran to believe all can become pretty good. Solid hit rate.)
While NU would presumably become a top 4 (?) Big Ten team if PBJ and Christie were to come, the formula that will work in the long run is getting guys in that 50-150 range that develop over time.
I don't know about data but I do know basketball doesn't require facilities and gear that football does. And when you only have to wait only one year to go pro, agents and AAU coaches with no academic ties can have a lot more influence that high school counselors and football coaches. As to the parity, it's great to see. There are a lot of good players out there but how many can qualify academically for NU?
Then what is it? What is your theory?
Struck a nerve? Lol. I asked the sincere question after you dismissed another posters opinion.Looks like I struck a nerve asking a sincere question. I think 320 is probably closer to the mark in terms of what our issue has been than basketball players being too influenced by AAU coaches and uninterested in academics as compared to their football brethren.
I would neither be mad nor would I be concerned about the future of the program.
Whatever the recruiting rankings say, this kind of Northwestern basketball looks no different to me compared to Northwestern basketball for most of the last 20 years, which is to say, not competitive. I'll always appreciate Collins. And I don't have any idea what went wrong with him at NU. No, I wouldn't be sad, except that I never thought it would end that way in failure. I thought he had all the makings.Bump.
Whatever the recruiting rankings say, this kind of Northwestern basketball looks no different to me compared to Northwestern basketball for most of the last 20 years, which is to say, not competitive. I'll always appreciate Collins. And I don't have any idea what went wrong with him at NU. No, I wouldn't be sad, except that I never thought it would end that way in failure. I thought he had all the makings.
I’d be disappointed because I think: (1) he has some serious talent to build with, should be able to recruit more as well, and I want to see what he can do with it in the next couple of seasons; and, (2) if he can figure out how to get his team to close out games they should/could win, this alone will get him up to “pretty darn good” in my eyes.I don't want to turn this into a thread about whether CC should keep his job because NU won't force him out after this year.
But if a good job opened up and CC decided on his own to go to a school with less academic restrictions and get a fresh start, would you be legitimately upset?
Given our current 1-9 record we will almost certainly finish in the BIG basement (10th or lower). That will mean that we've finished in the BIG basement in 6 out of his 7 years. The one year we didn't was glorious.
So how mad would you be if we had to get a new coach? Would you be mad because you think CC is a singular figure and all the intangibles (local guy, Duke pedigree, NBA dad) mean that this is the best we can do in terms of a hiring?
Not being able to get reputable coach is the one thing that would concern me because "even the Duke guy couldn't win in Evanston" would be a thing. I think our coach search would be even harder than when we hired Collins, but I think his coaching and development (probably not recruiting) could be replicated and replaced.
Your definitely right about NU BB looing bad for 20 plus years. Still you missed one major obstacle, ADMISSIONS. NU will continue to finish near the bottom of the conference because they can only recruit 10% of players, who are recruited by the other Big Ten programs. Answer? Loosen up admissions? Leave the Big Ten? Cheat?Whatever the recruiting rankings say, this kind of Northwestern basketball looks no different to me compared to Northwestern basketball for most of the last 20 years, which is to say, not competitive. I'll always appreciate Collins. And I don't have any idea what went wrong with him at NU. No, I wouldn't be sad, except that I never thought it would end that way in failure. I thought he had all the makings.
Struck a nerve? Lol. I asked the sincere question after you dismissed another posters opinion.
Yeah, you struck a nerve but saying you struck a nerve. You very well know there is no possible way he could support a comment that a higher percentage of football players would gain admissions to NU than basketball players. No different than you could refute his point with data. If not public.I didn't dismiss his opinion. I asked for data to back up his speculative assertions and expressed skepticism of their validity. That really set you off though, huh?
Looks like I struck a nerve by saying I struck a nerve.
You nailed it PPD. Until NU can recruit on equal footing, or close to it with the other 13 programs, they will continue to struggle and finish toward the bottom of the league. I imagine you are referring to Ayo,Yeah, you struck a nerve but saying you struck a nerve. You very well know there is no possible way he could support a comment that a higher percentage of football players would gain admissions to NU than basketball players. No different than you could refute his point with data. If not public.
comparing football to basketball is fools play. A recruiting miss hurts basketball, 2-3 kill a team. In football you typically get at least the same percentage of misses and I would argue more. NU has a horrendous 2016 class, that is what CCC and team is paying for now. There was only one recruit in 2017. Gaines isn’t a star but he is a decent player and this team misses his toughness. So the last 3 classes, I don’t think CCC has had a miss. You might argue, Greer, but under the circumstances, I have no issue with him. He doesn’t have an all big ten player either.
Basketball is a star game. Until NU gets a few NBA players, they will not consistently win. Look at the Fighting Undies. They are in first place because they have 2 NBA players. One of those players we recruited and allegedly couldn’t get admitted. CCC has recruited well in 5 of his 7 classes. The problem was the miss years were disasters and NU never has the star power to cover up for errors on the youth. Last night in crunch time NU melted down with 4 of the 5 guys on the court in their first year of college basketball. The other was in his second.
So, next year I see NU improving to the 6-7 win range in the B1G. Totally on balance and they will lose games when the star player of the other team wills them to a win. The vultures will predictably come out and cite CCC should be doing better with the best recruits in NU history and completely overlook what the obvious that NU’s best player isn’t as good as their B1G’s best player in 80% of their games.
So tell me your theory again?
Yeah, you struck a nerve but saying you struck a nerve. You very well know there is no possible way he could support a comment that a higher percentage of football players would gain admissions to NU than basketball players. No different than you could refute his point with data. If not public.
comparing football to basketball is fools play. A recruiting miss hurts basketball, 2-3 kill a team. In football you typically get at least the same percentage of misses and I would argue more. NU has a horrendous 2016 class, that is what CCC and team is paying for now. There was only one recruit in 2017. Gaines isn’t a star but he is a decent player and this team misses his toughness. So the last 3 classes, I don’t think CCC has had a miss. You might argue, Greer, but under the circumstances, I have no issue with him. He doesn’t have an all big ten player either.
Basketball is a star game. Until NU gets a few NBA players, they will not consistently win. Look at the Fighting Undies. They are in first place because they have 2 NBA players. One of those players we recruited and allegedly couldn’t get admitted. CCC has recruited well in 5 of his 7 classes. The problem was the miss years were disasters and NU never has the star power to cover up for errors on the youth. Last night in crunch time NU melted down with 4 of the 5 guys on the court in their first year of college basketball. The other was in his second.
So, next year I see NU improving to the 6-7 win range in the B1G. Totally on balance and they will lose games when the star player of the other team wills them to a win. The vultures will predictably come out and cite CCC should be doing better with the best recruits in NU history and completely overlook what the obvious that NU’s best player isn’t as good as their B1G’s best player in 80% of their games.
So tell me your theory again?
No it vexes me, when they people ask for data and then support a theory with no data to support. Pot meet kettle. HUH? Why don’t you at least have the balls to say it is on CCC instead of implying it?Theory on what? On why basketball can't compete the way that football has? I don't have a theory for that because I don't believe it is true. That sounds like excuses to me and I don't see CCC as an excuse-maker.
However, I think you seem to be in agreement to some degree with 320's post that I think sounds reasonable. We had a string of unsuccessful recruiting classes that we are paying for now.
Sounds like you disagree with 320 (and me) that the path to future success will be found in consistently recruiting in the 50-150 range with guys who stick around and build a program where the sum is greater than the individual parts. Sounds like you want a couple of NBA guys every year. Have to agree to disagree there. I don't think that is likely or sustainable here in the foreseeable future.
Sorry that I struck such a nerve. It really vexes you when people ask questions, huh?
Overpay? NCAA Tournament!!
Yes, you can't minimize the importance of getting NU over the hump, given how bad the history and facilities were when CCC came on board.
If he left in the middle of a game, yes. Otherwise, no.I don't want to turn this into a thread about whether CC should keep his job because NU won't force him out after this year.
But if a good job opened up and CC decided on his own to go to a school with less academic restrictions and get a fresh start, would you be legitimately upset?
Given our current 1-9 record we will almost certainly finish in the BIG basement (10th or lower). That will mean that we've finished in the BIG basement in 6 out of his 7 years. The one year we didn't was glorious.
So how mad would you be if we had to get a new coach? Would you be mad because you think CC is a singular figure and all the intangibles (local guy, Duke pedigree, NBA dad) mean that this is the best we can do in terms of a hiring?
Not being able to get reputable coach is the one thing that would concern me because "even the Duke guy couldn't win in Evanston" would be a thing. I think our coach search would be even harder than when we hired Collins, but I think his coaching and development (probably not recruiting) could be replicated and replaced.
Actually, if he left with 4 minutes to go and the Cats leading they'd probably have a better record, so I'd be in favor of that.......If he left in the middle of a game, yes. Otherwise, no.
No it vexes me, when they people ask for data and then support a theory with no data to support. Pot meet kettle. HUH? Why don’t you at least have the balls to say it is on CCC instead of implying it?
Look Boot, I would rather debate the merits of opinions in a decent manner than engage in a pissing match on the board. The question you specifically wondered was why the football program has been able to “crack the nut” for the most part and Basketball had not? After you asked for data to support an opinion of a poster that you thought was off base, I merely asked you the same question you asked the board? Surely, you have an opinion, you watch both teams year after year? I still have no idea why you thought this “struck a nerve”? Then you continued to double down.I'm not sure how pot meets kettle because I'm not vexed, Purp. I'm curious and excited about NU athletics. Let's recap.
Reporter's theory didn't seem very plausible to me so I asked if he had any data to support it (because then maybe it would sound more plausible to me.) There is loads of aggregate academic data on NCAA student-athletes, so I thought maybe he had seen some that compared academics between football and basketball. Absent that, I was left with my original feeling that it didn't sound very plausible. Am I required to accept every theory thrown out here at face value? I guess the Earth must be flat, the impossible baby runs wild, and Coach Hank looks to wrassler for advice.
320's theory seemed more plausible to me and the limited data of NU success in basketball matches fairly well with what he suggested (hitting on recruits ranked in the 50-150 range who stick together for multiple years and create something greater than the sum of the parts.)
This all seems to go back to you getting really upset whenever anybody asks questions around here that make you uncomfortable. That sucks for you.
And I have no problem saying it...the success we've had under CCC is on him and the struggles we've had under CCC are on him. I'm 100% certain that he would agree with that because it's a loser mentality to put responsibility anywhere else. And CCC is most certainly not a loser. He's a super successful dude who is fighting hard for the players and this program. In fact, while this year is difficult, I think he's building the program the right way and that will bear fruit over the next few seasons. I'm sure that I'll have some questions about things he does over the next five years. I hope it doesn't vex you too much.
320's theory seemed more plausible to me and the limited data of NU success in basketball matches fairly well with what he suggested (hitting on recruits ranked in the 50-150 range who stick together for multiple years and create something greater than the sum of the parts.)
Well done Gato.What's up with the 50-150 number? We just chose it and it's doable? How do we get to attract a kid ranked #51 in the country?
Let's go over some numbers, in the CC era, cause that has been, for now, our golden age of recruiting (using 247 data):
-Joe Bamisile was our highest rated commit, he was #69 and he bailed
-Lathon was #133 and was dismissed
-2014 class took us to the tournament: Law was #89, BMac was #214, Lindsey was #281. Vassar was #242 and Skelly was #362
-2015, Falzon was #114, Ash was #215 and Pardon was #300
-2016, Rap was #145 , Benson was #151 and Brown was #236
-2017, Gaines was #189
-2018, Nance was #88 , Greer was #342 , Young was #348 and Kopp was #115
-2019, Beran was #110, Buie was #327 and Jones was #225
-2020, Berry is #136 and Nicholson is #218
So we have 21 recruits, not counting Bamisile and Lathon.
2/21 were top 100, or 9.5%
7/21 were top 150, or 33.3%
The average is #212
The average since 2018, still #212
Consider this:
-There are 74 other P6 schools, who all have better history than we do and, other than Stanford, have loser admission standards
-There are, for the sake of argument, 8 other schools that have a recent history of attracting power talent: Cincy, Houston, Memphis, Nevada, Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's, UConn. Debatable, but roll with it
So that 82 schools. Let's be nice and say 12 are a mess right now, like Vanderbilt, so 70 are in a better position on the recruiting trail than we are.
Let's say each recruits 3 players in a class. That's 210 players. I did not set this up, but this is really close to our average ranking of 212.
Rankings don't explain all. We know that. But hitting consistently on the 50-150 area is nearly impossible with our current program.
Well done Gato.
in addition, those top 50 players have to go somewhere and the B1G probably gets 4-5 a year and they aren’t coming to NU.
recruiting and other teams as an example - and the competition that play against each day in practice - most of the players are similarly ranked as NU on the rosters with the exception of below:
here is the highest rank and anyone ranked higher than 88 (nance's ranking)
MSU - highest rank marble 223
malik hall - 61
rocket watts - 39
josh langford - 19
cassius winston - 31
joey hauser - 52
ILL -
giorgi 373
kofi - 46
ayo - 32
feliz - 11
UM -
faulds - 322
johns - 70
simpson - 67
OSU -
diallo - 361
carton - 34
gaffney - 50
liddell - 44
muhammad - 79
wesson - 75
young - 80
PU -
stefanovic - 374
haarms - 352
eastern - 69
IU -
durham - 230
davis - 40
hunter - 59
jackson davis - 30
smith - 78
nebraska -
cross - 473
green - 17
cheatham - 75
mack - 27
minnesota -
several 400s
oturo - 50
wisconsin -
several 400s
Reuvers - 66
PSU -
several - 300s/400s
jones - 85
maryland -
hart - 467
ayala - 78
cowan - 62
mitchel - 69
morsell - 74
smith - 16
wiggins - 42
rutgers -
multiple 300/400s
carter - 12
iowa -
multiple 300s
wieskamp - 60
NU -
young - 348
audige - unranked
nance - 88
the main thing that separates NU from the other programs is most of the "middle of the pack" guys are generally "athletes" vs "skill kids" - iowa and wisconsin are the exceptions there
Well done Gato.
in addition, those top 50 players have to go somewhere and the B1G probably gets 4-5 a year and they aren’t coming to NU.
What's up with the 50-150 number? We just chose it and it's doable?
I'm super confused by your theory and what you're arguing for. You keep saying that NU needs those NBA studs, but then you say that NU isn't getting those NBA studs. So, you don't buy into your own theory? Regardless, I think you're right that NU probably doesn't get a ton of those guys. Maybe 1 once in a while, but IMHO thinking that we are going to build Duke style classes in the near future is silly.
I'll also humbly note that suggesting NU try to build around getting a couple of (the right fit) #50-150 players per class has precious little to do with getting those top 50 players you're talking about here. We have recruited 5 such players in the last five classes and have another coming in next year. It sure seems like CCC is onboard. And if we can increase that rate to maybe 6-7 guys over a four year period and get those guys to stick around and grow together, I think 320 is right that we'll see significant improvements. Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
I could be confused, but I don’t we are disagreeing much. My point is IMO NU will not secure a B1G championship without an NBA level player(s). I would be thrilled with 7-8 guys knocking on a 100 or so ranking. Final 4 teams and B1G ten elite teams have pro players.
Since NU is dead ass last in the B1G it seems absurd to be talking about winning the B1G, but that has been the goal. I am all in on 320’s wish for players in the 50-150 range. Would be ecstatic, but that still would not make NU the most talented team in the conference. I think getting to this point would make NU a contender to get in the tourney. Maybe that is the best we can expect. After all, it has only happened once. However, I suspect CCC would still be taken behind the woodshed for not winning or contending for the conference title with the best talent in NU history. My point is it tough to win in this conference without that Elite player and look around the B1G and NU’s best player is worse than the opponent’s best player in nearly every game.
Yeah, pretty much. I don't think anyone is arguing that we turn down a kid because he's ranked #151 or #49 by somebody. I think the general idea is that we try to get a consistent level of talent, keep it around for a while, develop it so that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and grow a program of consistency. There will always be ups and downs, but that seems to be the approach that has worked more consistently in football (continually try to upgrade the physical talent level while emphasizing building a "program" where the pieces fit together.) That seems like the approach that paid great dividends at Wisconsin for many years as well.
I understood hitting consistently as in the majority or close to all our players should be in the range. But if it's one a year. That's doable. And CC has been doing a great job at getting them. Including 2 in the same year with Kopp and Nance.
Agree. I think the hope would be more like 1.5-2.0 per year, but I think the general idea is to try to inch up that 212 average you were talking about. If half our roster is in that range and we are more successful with the guys in the 150-300 range than we've been lately, we'll be more talented and will be more successful if we develop cohesion in that greater talent.
2 average would be great. But I would be tickled pink with 1.5. Like you said, it would give us 1/2 the roster in that range, with 3 upper classmen among them.
We can't speak it into existence though. One example, Butler, just because I go to most of their games. Their incoming class is being touted around here as the best ever for the program. And that's a program who had the golden years of the Brad Stevens era. Their 2020 class:
-138
-145
-147
-175
-305
Average: 182
I guess the point of bringing it up is that the 50-100 range is really really hard to get.
I could be confused, but I don’t we are disagreeing much. My point is IMO NU will not secure a B1G championship without an NBA level player(s). I would be thrilled with 7-8 guys knocking on a 100 or so ranking. Final 4 teams and B1G ten elite teams have pro players.
Since NU is dead ass last in the B1G it seems absurd to be talking about winning the B1G, but that has been the goal. I am all in on 320’s wish for players in the 50-150 range. Would be ecstatic, but that still would not make NU the most talented team in the conference. I think getting to this point would make NU a contender to get in the tourney. Maybe that is the best we can expect. After all, it has only happened once. However, I suspect CCC would still be taken behind the woodshed for not winning or contending for the conference title with the best talent in NU history. My point is it tough to win in this conference without that Elite player and look around the B1G and NU’s best player is worse than the opponent’s best player in nearly every game.
2 average would be great. But I would be tickled pink with 1.5. Like you said, it would give us 1/2 the roster in that range, with 3 upper classmen among them.
We can't speak it into existence though. One example, Butler, just because I go to most of their games. Their incoming class is being touted around here as the best ever for the program. And that's a program who had the golden years of the Brad Stevens era. Their 2020 class:
-138
-145
-147
-175
-305
Average: 182
I guess the point of bringing it up is that the 50-100 range is really really hard to get.
also they are having a strong year and their make-up is:
4 - seniors (1 grad/5th)
5 - juniors (1 rs Jr.)
1 - soph
4 - frosh (2 rs FR)
of their avg minutes/game: 1 frosh, 1 soph, 8 other players with 3+ years of expperience
Smits - 10 min - 5th
Battle - 11 min - FR
baddley - 12 min - Sr.
christian - 14 min - JR
Golden - 20 min - SO
Tucker - 22 min - JR
Nze - 29 min - rs JR
baldwin - 31 min - SR
thompson - 32 min - JR
mcdermott - 32 min - rs SR
just reinforces how programs in our position struggle when young and the POTENTIAL to be a lot better as they get older (same with wisconsin even with #12 Dekkar)
Nope.I don't want to turn this into a thread about whether CC should keep his job because NU won't force him out after this year.
But if a good job opened up and CC decided on his own to go to a school with less academic restrictions and get a fresh start, would you be legitimately upset?