Bit of a big game tonight. I went back to the first game and looked through the lineups used on both sides, and looked at Izzo's rotation in recent games. When we last played them, reserve big man Jaxon Kohler had just returned from a foot injury and played one 3-minute segment in the second half when Izzo was looking for someone to spark them. Since then, he's gotten more playing time at the expense of starter Maddy Sissoko. In addition, 5-star freshman big man Xavier Booker, who only played 4 minutes against us mostly in garbage time, has gotten as many minutes in the past 2 games as he did in the previous 9. He's more of a stretch-4 than a traditional C, as he's a dangerous 3-point shooter, but has played about 5mpg at C in the past few games. The rest of Izzo's rotation has largely remained stable.
For us, Berry played 35 minutes in game 1, was our top scorer with 22 hitting 4-7 3s and grabbing 4 boards along with 2 steals. Huge, huge loss. We did outscore them 9-8 when he sat, for what it's worth (it's worth very little). Nicholson only played 10 minutes last time, mostly because he picked up 3 fouls in 2 and a half minutes in the 1st half, but they were impactful minutes. He was +4 against Sissoko in 4:46, +3 against Cooper in 3:42 and +4 against Hall in 1:19 to seal the game. We had our best offense and defense when he was playing, so that's a big loss. Hunger had an excellent game though, going +14 in nearly 19 minutes. Against Sissoko he was +9 in 10:11, even against Cooper in 6:32, and +5 against Kohler in 2:01. Scored 10 points, grabbed 3 offensive rebounds, had 1 block and 1 steal. Then there was Preston...in the first half, he finished even in 5:20, but in the 2nd half, it was not good. His first stint, he went -4 in 2:14 against Cooper, was taken out for Hunger who went +5 against Kohler, then put back in and went -5 against Kohler in 1:19. He didn't play the rest of the game, with Collins preferring to use Martinelli at the 5 when we got to garbage time in the last 2:36. Let's hope Hunger is up to the task again tonight.
Anyway, on to the scouting report:
Hoggard remains the driver of their offense, averaging 11.9 points, 5.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 40% from 3 at home in conference play. He's generally not the most efficient shooter, but can start to put up points if he gets to the line. Last game he scored 13 on 3-9 shooting, but was 5-5 from the FT line.
Walker is the starting SG, and had his best game of the conference season this year against us, scoring 27 points on 10-18 shooting including 4-7 from 3. He was their best player in the first game. He's struggled a bit from an efficiency standpoint the past seven games while still averaging 15.1 points and 2.4 assists per game, but remains a very good defender, recording at least 1 steal in the last 13 games, averaging 2/game.
Akins is the 3rd guard in the starting lineup, and he had an absolutely miserable game against us the first time around, finishing -29 in 30 non-garbage time minutes. In the first half, he sat for 3 and a half minutes, where MSU went +7, and then played the final 10 minutes of the first half, where we outscored MSU 28-9. In the second half, he sat for 4 minutes where MSU went +6, sandwiched in between the 13:30 he played where they went -7. Personally, he had a good game, scoring 13 points with 4 boards, but the team only scored 41 points in 48 possessions when he was playing. He remains a threat from 3, despite struggling the last 4 games (26.7%, 42.3% prior to that), and is also a good defender averaging 1.7 steals/game in the last 9.
The main backup to the 3 guards is Tre Holloman. In game 1, he played 20 non-garbage time minutes, 7 of them coming at PG. The team was much more effective when he was in for Akins, as he went -3 when in for Hoggard, -7 when he was in for Walker, and +10 when he was in for Akins. He averages 6 points/game at home, against only 2.7 on the road, so he will likely be a factor tonight. The other backup is freshman wing Coen Carr, who Izzo was forced into playing a lot against us at the 4 due to the ineffectiveness of Malik Hall, where he was -7 in 7:54, and +3 in 1:41 at wing. He oddly plays more like a big man despite being only 6'5", as he doesn't shoot 3s and rarely shoots at all unless it's a dunk. As long as we keep him away from the rim he shouldn't have a big impact.
Hall is the starter at the 4, and since he was shutout by us, he has been a monster. He's scored in double figures in 13 of 14 games, averaging 16.4 points, 6.4 boards and 1.9 assists per game, shooting 69.8% at the rim(!), 52.8% from midrange(!!), 55% from 3(!!!), and 80% from the FT line. His one weakness has been turnovers, as he's coughed it up 2.5 times/game in the last 4 games, so hopefully we can get some doubles on him without allowing him to kick it out to a shooter. I'm fairly certain he's not going to forget the game he had earlier this year, so I'm a bit worried.
The previously mentioned Xavier Booker plays the few minutes that Hall sits, and has scored 18 points over the last two games while shooting 37% from 3. He's a bit foul-prone, as he's a string bean freshman big man, but clearly the talent is starting to come out. Hopefully he doesn't continue tonight.
Lastly, the three-headed center of Sissoko, Cooper and Kohler. Taken together, they average 7.3 points, 9.8 boards and 1.4 blocks per game. Cooper is the most unheralded of the 3, but plays the most minutes. None of them have made a 3 this year. Izzo will start Sissoko, but will ride the hot hand during the game.
Ultimately, this will come down to how well we can weather the loss of 2 starters, how healed Langborg's ankle is, whether we can stop their guards from hitting 3s, and whether we can make our own 3s - MSU has only allowed teams to shoot 30% from 3 at home vs 40.5% on the road. It's senior night, and they start 4 seniors, so there will likely be some emotion involved, plus we have Boo Buie for one last matchup against MSU. Boo has scored 19+ points in 4 of his 7 matchups against the Spartans, including 20 points, 5 boards and 3 assists last year at the Breslin Center, giving us our first big win on the way to the tourney.
